气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) and the prediction of extreme events

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DOI	10.1038/s41612-018-0013-0
	The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) and the prediction of extreme events
	Vitart F.; Robertson A.W.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	23973722
卷号	1 期号:1
英文摘要	The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) is a 5-year project, established in 2013 by the World Weather Research Program (WWRP) and the World Climate Research Program (WCRP). This paper briefly describes the S2S project in the context of extended range prediction of extreme events. We provide evidence that S2S forecasts have the potential to predict the onset, evolution and decay of some large-scale extreme events several weeks ahead. For instance, S2S models displayed skill to predict high probabilities of extreme 2-m temperature anomalies over Russia during the worst week of the 2010 Russian heat wave up to 3 weeks in advance. In other cases, like for tropical cyclone prediction, S2S models can produce useful information on the probability of the occurrence of tropical storms within sufficiently large areas through the prediction of large-scale predictors, such as the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). In future, S2S forecasts of extreme events could be integrated into a “ready-set-go” framework between seasonal and medium range forecasts, by providing an early warning of an extreme event a few weeks in advance. Finally, S2S forecasts can also be used to investigate the causality of some extreme events and we show evidence that the cold March 2013 over western Europe and North Asia was linked to a MJO event propagating over the western Pacific. © 2018, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate prediction; extreme event; Madden-Julian oscillation; seasonal variation; temperature anomaly; tropical cyclone; weather forecasting; Russian Federation
来源期刊	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178195
作者单位	European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, United Kingdom; International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vitart F.,Robertson A.W.. The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) and the prediction of extreme events[J],2018,1(1).
APA	Vitart F.,&Robertson A.W..(2018).The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) and the prediction of extreme events.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,1(1).
MLA	Vitart F.,et al."The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) and the prediction of extreme events".npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 1.1(2018).