气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Fidelity of CMIP5 multi-model mean in assessing Indian monsoon simulations

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DOI	10.1038/s41612-018-0049-1
	Fidelity of CMIP5 multi-model mean in assessing Indian monsoon simulations
	Mishra S.K.; Sahany S.; Salunke P.; Kang I.-S.; Jain S.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	23973722
卷号	1 期号:1
英文摘要	Considering the wide use of the multi-model mean (MMM) on the seasonal time scale, this work examines its fidelity in simulating some important characteristics of the Indian summer monsoon using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations. It is noted that the MMM captures the observed spatial pattern and annual cycle of surface air temperature to a great extent, but there are large biases in magnitude, particularly over north India. For precipitation, only the broad-scale features are captured and extreme large biases, of magnitude equal or higher than the seasonal mean precipitation, exist in the MMM. The simulation of trends in seasonal mean temperatures and precipitation is even less satisfactory than the climatological means. Several precipitation features, for example, low-to-moderate intensity precipitation events, orography-related rain bands, extreme events, are noted to improve with increasing resolution of the models, whereas, no such improvement is noted for temperatures. It is also noted that the improvement in CMIP5 MMM is marginal if compared with the best performing model from the group of models considered for analysis. There are several models that show similar skill as MMM, and therefore could be alternatively used for future projections. Moreover, using such individual models for Indian monsoon projections will also help us to understand the underlying mechanisms and processes by conducting targeted numerical experiments, which would otherwise be highly limited by approaches like MMM. Therefore, targeted efforts to improve some of these better models are required to gain more confidence in future projections of Indian monsoon. © 2018, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; climate modeling; CMIP; computer simulation; monsoon; precipitation (climatology); India
来源期刊	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178161
作者单位	Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, IIT Delhi, New Delhi, 110016, India; Indian Ocean Operational Research Center, SOED/Second Institute of Oceanography, Hangzhou, China; Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mishra S.K.,Sahany S.,Salunke P.,et al. Fidelity of CMIP5 multi-model mean in assessing Indian monsoon simulations[J],2018,1(1).
APA	Mishra S.K.,Sahany S.,Salunke P.,Kang I.-S.,&Jain S..(2018).Fidelity of CMIP5 multi-model mean in assessing Indian monsoon simulations.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,1(1).
MLA	Mishra S.K.,et al."Fidelity of CMIP5 multi-model mean in assessing Indian monsoon simulations".npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 1.1(2018).