气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A solution to the misrepresentations of CO2-equivalent emissions of short-lived climate pollutants under ambitious mitigation

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41612-018-0026-8
	A solution to the misrepresentations of CO2-equivalent emissions of short-lived climate pollutants under ambitious mitigation
	Allen M.R.; Shine K.P.; Fuglestvedt J.S.; Millar R.J.; Cain M.; Frame D.J.; Macey A.H.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	23973722
卷号	1 期号:1
英文摘要	While cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions dominate anthropogenic warming over centuries, temperatures over the coming decades are also strongly affected by short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), complicating the estimation of cumulative emission budgets for ambitious mitigation goals. Using conventional Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) to convert SLCPs to “CO2-equivalent” emissions misrepresents their impact on global temperature. Here we show that peak warming under a range of mitigation scenarios is determined by a linear combination of cumulative CO2 emissions to the time of peak warming and non-CO2 radiative forcing immediately prior to that time. This may be understood by expressing aggregate non-CO2 forcing as cumulative CO2 forcing-equivalent (CO2-fe) emissions. We show further that contributions to CO2-fe emissions are well approximated by a new usage of GWP, denoted GWP, which relates cumulative CO2 emissions to date with the current rate of emission of SLCPs. GWP accurately indicates the impact of emissions of both long-lived and short-lived pollutants on radiative forcing and temperatures over a wide range of timescales, including under ambitious mitigation when conventional GWPs fail. Measured by GWP, implementing the Paris Agreement would reduce the expected rate of warming in 2030 by 28% relative to a No Policy scenario. Expressing mitigation efforts in terms of their impact on future cumulative emissions aggregated using GWP would relate them directly to contributions to future warming, better informing both burden-sharing discussions and long-term policies and measures in pursuit of ambitious global temperature goals. © 2018, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; atmospheric pollution; carbon dioxide; carbon emission; global warming; pollution control; radiative forcing
来源期刊	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178143
作者单位	Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, United Kingdom; Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PU, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading, RG6 6BB, United Kingdom; Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), PO Box 1129 Blindern, Oslo, 0318, Norway; Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, 34 Broad Street, Oxford, OX1 3BD, United Kingdom; New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington, New Zealand; Institute for Governance and Policy Studies, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington, New Zealand
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Allen M.R.,Shine K.P.,Fuglestvedt J.S.,et al. A solution to the misrepresentations of CO2-equivalent emissions of short-lived climate pollutants under ambitious mitigation[J],2018,1(1).
APA	Allen M.R..,Shine K.P..,Fuglestvedt J.S..,Millar R.J..,Cain M..,...&Macey A.H..(2018).A solution to the misrepresentations of CO2-equivalent emissions of short-lived climate pollutants under ambitious mitigation.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,1(1).
MLA	Allen M.R.,et al."A solution to the misrepresentations of CO2-equivalent emissions of short-lived climate pollutants under ambitious mitigation".npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 1.1(2018).