气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Robust skill of decadal climate predictions

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41612-019-0071-y
	Robust skill of decadal climate predictions
	Smith D.M.; Eade R.; Scaife A.A.; Caron L.-P.; Danabasoglu G.; DelSole T.M.; Delworth T.; Doblas-Reyes F.J.; Dunstone N.J.; Hermanson L.; Kharin V.; Kimoto M.; Merryfield W.J.; Mochizuki T.; Müller W.A.; Pohlmann H.; Yeager S.; Yang X.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	23973722
卷号	2 期号:1
英文摘要	There is a growing need for skilful predictions of climate up to a decade ahead. Decadal climate predictions show high skill for surface temperature, but confidence in forecasts of precipitation and atmospheric circulation is much lower. Recent advances in seasonal and annual prediction show that the signal-to-noise ratio can be too small in climate models, requiring a very large ensemble to extract the predictable signal. Here, we reassess decadal prediction skill using a much larger ensemble than previously available, and reveal significant skill for precipitation over land and atmospheric circulation, in addition to surface temperature. We further propose a more powerful approach than used previously to evaluate the benefit of initialisation with observations, improving our understanding of the sources of skill. Our results show that decadal climate is more predictable than previously thought and will aid society to prepare for, and adapt to, ongoing climate variability and change. © 2019, Crown.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	accuracy assessment; atmospheric circulation; climate change; climate modeling; climate prediction; computer simulation; decadal variation; surface temperature; weather forecasting
来源期刊	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178105
作者单位	Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Exeter University, Exeter, United Kingdom; Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, Barcelona, 08034, Spain; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences and Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; ICREA, Barcelona, Spain; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada; Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan; Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan; Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Bundesstraße 53, Hamburg, 20146, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Smith D.M.,Eade R.,Scaife A.A.,et al. Robust skill of decadal climate predictions[J],2019,2(1).
APA	Smith D.M..,Eade R..,Scaife A.A..,Caron L.-P..,Danabasoglu G..,...&Yang X..(2019).Robust skill of decadal climate predictions.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,2(1).
MLA	Smith D.M.,et al."Robust skill of decadal climate predictions".npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 2.1(2019).