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DOI	10.1038/s41612-019-0083-7
	Frequency of severe thunderstorms across Europe expected to increase in the 21st century due to rising instability
	Rädler A.T.; Groenemeijer P.H.; Faust E.; Sausen R.; Púčik T.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	23973722
卷号	2 期号:1
英文摘要	We show that the frequency of damaging convective weather events including lightning, hail and severe wind gusts will likely increase over Europe until the end of this century. We apply a set of additive regression models to an ensemble of 14 regional climate simulations and find that convective instability will increase as a result of rising humidity near the earth’s surface. Even though a slight decrease in thunderstorm occurrence in southwestern and southeastern Europe is projected, the probability of severe weather will increase throughout Europe, in particular for very large hail. It might be expected that Arctic amplification would lead to a weaker jet stream and, thus lower vertical wind shear, but we find instead that the jet changes little or even increases in situations with convective instability. To cope with the rising hazard probabilities, risk models will need to be adapted, while investment in sturdier structures, like the use of hardened glass in greenhouses or solar panels, will become more cost-effective. Furthermore, the need will grow to advise the public on loss prevention by taking precautionary measures as storms approach. © 2019, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	gust; hail; instability; lightning; severe weather; thunderstorm; twenty first century; Arctic; Europe
来源期刊	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178098
作者单位	Munich Re, Munich, Germany; European Severe Storms Laboratory, Wessling, Germany; Deutsches Zentrum für Luft und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rädler A.T.,Groenemeijer P.H.,Faust E.,et al. Frequency of severe thunderstorms across Europe expected to increase in the 21st century due to rising instability[J],2019,2(1).
APA	Rädler A.T.,Groenemeijer P.H.,Faust E.,Sausen R.,&Púčik T..(2019).Frequency of severe thunderstorms across Europe expected to increase in the 21st century due to rising instability.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,2(1).
MLA	Rädler A.T.,et al."Frequency of severe thunderstorms across Europe expected to increase in the 21st century due to rising instability".npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 2.1(2019).