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DOI | 10.1038/s41612-019-0075-7 |
New insights into natural variability and anthropogenic forcing of global/regional climate evolution | |
Wu T.; Hu A.; Gao F.; Zhang J.; Meehl G.A. | |
发表日期 | 2019 |
ISSN | 23973722 |
卷号 | 2期号:1 |
英文摘要 | Because of natural decadal climate variability—Atlantic multi-decadal variability (AMV) and Pacific decadal variability (PDV) —the increase of global mean surface air temperature (GMSAT) has not been monotonic although atmospheric greenhouse-gas (GHG) concentrations have been increasing continuously. It has always been a challenge regarding how to separate the effects of these two factors on GMSAT. Here, we find a physically based quasi-linear relationship between transient GMSAT and well-mixed GHG changes for both observations and model simulations. With AMV and PDV defined as the combination of variability over both the Atlantic and Pacific basins after the GHG-related trend is removed, we show that the observed GMSAT changes from 1880 to 2017 on multi-decadal or longer timescales receive contributions of about 70% from GHGs, while AMV and PDV together account for roughly 30%. Moreover, AMV contributes more to time-evolving GMSAT on multi-decadal and longer timescales, but PDV leads AMV on decadal timescales with comparable contributions to GMSAT trends. © 2019, The Author(s). |
语种 | 英语 |
scopus关键词 | air temperature; anthropogenic effect; climate variation; computer simulation; concentration (composition); decadal variation; greenhouse gas; numerical model |
来源期刊 | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
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文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178092 |
作者单位 | Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, No. 46, Zhongguancun South Street, Beijing, 100081, China; National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80305, United States; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 19(A) Yuquan Road, Beijing, 100049, China; Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, No. 46, Zhongguancun South Street, Beijing, 100081, China; China Meteorological Administration Training Centre, No. 46, Zhongguancun South Street, Beijing, 100081, China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wu T.,Hu A.,Gao F.,et al. New insights into natural variability and anthropogenic forcing of global/regional climate evolution[J],2019,2(1). |
APA | Wu T.,Hu A.,Gao F.,Zhang J.,&Meehl G.A..(2019).New insights into natural variability and anthropogenic forcing of global/regional climate evolution.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,2(1). |
MLA | Wu T.,et al."New insights into natural variability and anthropogenic forcing of global/regional climate evolution".npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 2.1(2019). |
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