气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Non-CO2 forcing changes will likely decrease the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 °C

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DOI	10.1038/s41612-020-0123-3
	Non-CO2 forcing changes will likely decrease the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 °C
	Mengis N.; Matthews H.D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	23973722
卷号	3 期号:1
英文摘要	One key contribution to the wide range of 1.5 °C carbon budgets among recent studies is the non-CO2 climate forcing scenario uncertainty. Based on a partitioning of historical non-CO2 forcing, we show that currently there is a net negative non-CO2 forcing from fossil fuel combustion (FFC), and a net positive non-CO2 climate forcing from land-use change (LUC) and agricultural activities. We perform a set of future simulations in which we prescribed a 1.5 °C temperature stabilisation trajectory, and diagnosed the resulting 1.5 °C carbon budgets. Using the historical partitioning, we then prescribed adjusted non-CO2 forcing scenarios consistent with our model’s simulated decrease in FFC CO2 emissions. We compared the diagnosed carbon budgets from these adjusted scenarios to those resulting from the default RCP scenario’s non-CO2 forcing, and to a scenario in which proportionality between future CO2 and non-CO2 forcing is assumed. We find a wide range of carbon budget estimates across scenarios, with the largest budget emerging from the scenario with assumed proportionality of CO2 and non-CO2 forcing. Furthermore, our adjusted-RCP scenarios produce carbon budgets that are smaller than the corresponding default RCP scenarios. Our results suggest that ambitious mitigation scenarios will likely be characterised by an increasing contribution of non-CO2 forcing, and that an assumption of continued proportionality between CO2 and non-CO2 forcing would lead to an overestimate of the remaining carbon budget. Maintaining such proportionality under ambitious fossil fuel mitigation would require mitigation of non-CO2 emissions at a rate that is substantially faster than found in the standard RCP scenarios. © 2020, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	agriculture; air temperature; carbon budget; carbon dioxide; climate change; climate forcing; combustion; computer simulation; fossil fuel; land use change
来源期刊	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178052
作者单位	GEOMAR, Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany; Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada; Concordia University, Montreal, QC, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mengis N.,Matthews H.D.. Non-CO2 forcing changes will likely decrease the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 °C[J],2020,3(1).
APA	Mengis N.,&Matthews H.D..(2020).Non-CO2 forcing changes will likely decrease the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 °C.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,3(1).
MLA	Mengis N.,et al."Non-CO2 forcing changes will likely decrease the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 °C".npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 3.1(2020).