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DOI	10.1038/s41612-020-0128-y
	Low-dimensional representations of Niño 3.4 evolution and the spring persistence barrier
	Tippett M.K.; L’Heureux M.L.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	23973722
卷号	3 期号:1
英文摘要	The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate variability on interannual time scales, and its temporal evolution can be summarized using the Niño 3.4 index. Here we used EOF analysis to construct low-dimensional representations of the 12-month evolution of Niño 3.4 during different times of the year. The leading EOF explains more than 90% of the variance of the Niño 3.4 evolution from June to May, which means that the differences in evolution from one year to another are essentially differences in amplitude. Two EOFs explained 94% or more of the evolution variance for other 12-month periods of the year. The two-dimensional nature of the Niño 3.4 trajectories is a direct expression of the spring persistence barrier since the first EOF describes wintertime ENSO events, and the second EOF describes independent behavior during the antecedent spring. A periodic second-order autoregressive (AR2) model reproduced the observed properties, but a first-order model did not. Niño 3.4 EOFs in ocean-atmosphere coupled model forecasts matched observed EOFs with varying levels of fidelity depending on model and time of year. Forecast models with more accurate climatological covariance also have lower mean-squared error (MSE). Low-dimensional EOF-based statistical corrections reduced forecast MSE. © 2020, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmosphere-ocean coupling; climate variation; climatology; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; spring (season); temporal evolution
来源期刊	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178043
作者单位	Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, United States; NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD 20740, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tippett M.K.,L’Heureux M.L.. Low-dimensional representations of Niño 3.4 evolution and the spring persistence barrier[J],2020,3(1).
APA	Tippett M.K.,&L’Heureux M.L..(2020).Low-dimensional representations of Niño 3.4 evolution and the spring persistence barrier.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,3(1).
MLA	Tippett M.K.,et al."Low-dimensional representations of Niño 3.4 evolution and the spring persistence barrier".npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 3.1(2020).