气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Amplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41612-021-00161-2
	Amplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability
	Singh J.; Ashfaq M.; Skinner C.B.; Anderson W.B.; Singh D.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	23973722
卷号	4 期号:1
英文摘要	Spatially compounding droughts over multiple regions pose amplifying pressures on the global food system, the reinsurance industry, and the global economy. Using observations and climate model simulations, we analyze the influence of various natural Ocean variability modes on the likelihood, extent, and severity of compound droughts across ten regions that have similar precipitation seasonality and cover important breadbaskets and vulnerable populations. Although a majority of compound droughts are associated with El Niños, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, and cold phases of the Atlantic Niño and Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) can substantially modulate their characteristics. Cold TNA conditions have the largest amplifying effect on El Niño-related compound droughts. While the probability of compound droughts is ~3 times higher during El Niño conditions relative to neutral conditions, it is ~7 times higher when cold TNA and El Niño conditions co-occur. The probability of widespread and severe compound droughts is also amplified by a factor of ~3 and ~2.5 during these co-occurring modes relative to El Niño conditions alone. Our analysis demonstrates that co-occurrences of these modes result in widespread precipitation deficits across the tropics by inducing anomalous subsidence, and reducing lower-level moisture convergence over the study regions. Our results emphasize the need for considering interactions within the larger climate system in characterizing compound drought risks rather than focusing on teleconnections from individual modes. Understanding the physical drivers and characteristics of compound droughts has important implications for predicting their occurrence and characterizing their impacts on interconnected societal systems. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate modeling; drought; El Nino; ocean; risk assessment; seasonality; teleconnection; vulnerability; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North)
来源期刊	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178008
作者单位	School of the Environment, Washington State University, Vancouver, WA, United States; Computational Sciences and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States; Department of Environmental, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, MA, United States; International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Singh J.,Ashfaq M.,Skinner C.B.,et al. Amplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability[J],2021,4(1).
APA	Singh J.,Ashfaq M.,Skinner C.B.,Anderson W.B.,&Singh D..(2021).Amplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,4(1).
MLA	Singh J.,et al."Amplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability".npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 4.1(2021).