气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Constraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest dieback

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DOI	10.1038/s41612-021-00162-1
	Constraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest dieback
	Chai Y.; Martins G.; Nobre C.; von Randow C.; Chen T.; Dolman H.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	23973722
卷号	4 期号:1
英文摘要	The complete or partial collapse of the forests of Amazonia is consistently named as one of the top ten possible tipping points of Planet Earth in a changing climate. However, apart from a few observational studies that showed increased mortality after the severe droughts of 2005 and 2010, the evidence for such collapse depends primarily on modelling. Such studies are notoriously deficient at predicting the rainfall in the Amazon basin and how the vegetation interacts with the rainfall is poorly represented. Here, we use long-term surface-based observations of the air temperature and rainfall in Amazonia to provide a constraint on the modelled sensitivity of temperature to changes in precipitation. This emergent constraint also allows us to significantly constrain the likelihood of a forest collapse or dieback. We conclude that Amazon dieback under IPCC scenario RCP8.5 (crossing the tipping point) is not likely to occur in the twenty-first century. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; climate change; dieback; precipitation (climatology); probability; rainfall; surface temperature; Amazonas [Brazil]; Brazil
来源期刊	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178004
作者单位	Department of Earth Sciences, Free University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; INPE-CCST, São José dos Campos/SP, Brazil; School of Geography, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chai Y.,Martins G.,Nobre C.,et al. Constraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest dieback[J],2021,4(1).
APA	Chai Y.,Martins G.,Nobre C.,von Randow C.,Chen T.,&Dolman H..(2021).Constraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest dieback.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,4(1).
MLA	Chai Y.,et al."Constraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest dieback".npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 4.1(2021).