气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41612-021-00178-7
	Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa
	Zittis G.; Hadjinicolaou P.; Almazroui M.; Bucchignani E.; Driouech F.; El Rhaz K.; Kurnaz L.; Nikulin G.; Ntoumos A.; Ozturk T.; Proestos Y.; Stenchikov G.; Zaaboul R.; Lelieveld J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	23973722
卷号	4 期号:1
英文摘要	Global climate projections suggest a significant intensification of summer heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). To assess regional impacts, and underpin mitigation and adaptation measures, robust information is required from climate downscaling studies, which has been lacking for the region. Here, we project future hot spells by using the Heat Wave Magnitude Index and a comprehensive ensemble of regional climate projections for MENA. Our results, for a business-as-usual pathway, indicate that in the second half of this century unprecedented super- and ultra-extreme heatwave conditions will emerge. These events involve excessively high temperatures (up to 56 °C and higher) and will be of extended duration (several weeks), being potentially life-threatening for humans. By the end of the century, about half of the MENA population (approximately 600 million) could be exposed to annually recurring super- and ultra-extreme heatwaves. It is expected that the vast majority of the exposed population (>90%) will live in urban centers, who would need to cope with these societally disruptive weather conditions. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	extreme event; heat wave; regional climate; summer; weather; Middle East; North Africa
来源期刊	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/177993
作者单位	Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C), The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus; Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research/Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; Euro Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Capua, Italy; Italian Aerospace Research Center (CIRA), Capua, Italy; University Mohammed VI Polytechnic, Ben Guerir, Morocco; Direction Générale de la Météorologie (DGM), Casablanca, Morocco; Department of Physics, Faculty of Science and Arts, Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey; Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies, Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey; Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden; Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences and Arts, Isik University, Istanbul, Turkey; Division of Physical Sciences and Engineering, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia; International Center for Biosaline Agriculture, Dubai, United Arab Emirates; Department of ...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zittis G.,Hadjinicolaou P.,Almazroui M.,et al. Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa[J],2021,4(1).
APA	Zittis G..,Hadjinicolaou P..,Almazroui M..,Bucchignani E..,Driouech F..,...&Lelieveld J..(2021).Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,4(1).
MLA	Zittis G.,et al."Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa".npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 4.1(2021).