气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century

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DOI	10.1038/s41612-021-00177-8
	NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century
	Klavans J.M.; Cane M.A.; Clement A.C.; Murphy L.N.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	23973722
卷号	4 期号:1
英文摘要	The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predictable in climate models at near-decadal timescales. Predictive skill derives from ocean initialization, which can capture variability internal to the climate system, and from external radiative forcing. Herein, we show that predictive skill for the NAO in a very large uninitialized multi-model ensemble is commensurate with previously reported skill from a state-of-the-art initialized prediction system. The uninitialized ensemble and initialized prediction system produce similar levels of skill for northern European precipitation and North Atlantic SSTs. Identifying these predictable components becomes possible in a very large ensemble, confirming the erroneously low signal-to-noise ratio previously identified in both initialized and uninitialized climate models. Though the results here imply that external radiative forcing is a major source of predictive skill for the NAO, they also indicate that ocean initialization may be important for particular NAO events (the mid-1990s strong positive NAO), and, as previously suggested, in certain ocean regions such as the subpolar North Atlantic ocean. Overall, we suggest that improving climate models’ response to external radiative forcing may help resolve the known signal-to-noise error in climate models. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air-sea interaction; climate prediction; ensemble forecasting; North Atlantic Oscillation; sea surface temperature; signal-to-noise ratio; timescale; twentieth century; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North)
来源期刊	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/177991
作者单位	Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Klavans J.M.,Cane M.A.,Clement A.C.,et al. NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century[J],2021,4(1).
APA	Klavans J.M.,Cane M.A.,Clement A.C.,&Murphy L.N..(2021).NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,4(1).
MLA	Klavans J.M.,et al."NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century".npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 4.1(2021).