气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): An intuitive metric to quantify and communicate tropical cyclone rainfall hazard

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0075.1
	An intuitive metric to quantify and communicate tropical cyclone rainfall hazard
	Bosma C.D.; Wright D.B.; Nguyen P.; Kossin J.P.; Herndon D.C.; Shepherd J.M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	00030007
起始页码	E206
结束页码	E220
卷号	101 期号:2
英文摘要	Recent tropical cyclones (TCs) have highlighted the hazards that TC rainfall poses to human life and property. These hazards are not adequately conveyed by the commonly used Saffir–Simpson scale. Additionally, while recurrence intervals (or, their inverse, annual exceedance probabilities) are sometimes used in the popular media to convey the magnitude and likelihood of extreme rainfall and floods, these concepts are often misunderstood by the public and have important statistical limitations. We introduce an alternative metric—the extreme rain multiplier (ERM), which expresses TC rainfall as a multiple of the climatologically derived 2-yr rainfall value. ERM allows individuals to connect (“anchor,” in cognitive psychology terms) the magnitude of a TC rainfall event to the magnitude of rain events that are more typically experienced in their area. A retrospective analysis of ERM values for TCs from 1948 to 2017 demonstrates the utility of the metric as a hazard quantification and communication tool. Hurricane Harvey (2017) had the highest ERM value during this period, underlining the storm’s extreme nature. ERM correctly identifies damaging historical TC rainfall events that would have been classified as “weak” using wind-based metrics. The analysis also reveals that the distribution of ERM maxima is similar throughout the eastern and southern United States, allowing for both the accurate identification of locally extreme rainfall events and the development of regional-scale (rather than local-scale) recurrence interval estimates for extreme TC rainfall. Last, an analysis of precipitation forecast data for Hurricane Florence (2018) demonstrates ERM’s ability to characterize Florence’s extreme rainfall hazard in the days preceding landfall. © 2020 American Meteorological Society For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Flood control; Hazards; Hurricanes; Storms; Tropics; Weather forecasting; Cognitive psychology; Communication tools; Exceedance probability; Precipitation forecast; Recurrence intervals; Retrospective analysis; Statistical limitations; Tropical cyclone; Rain
来源期刊	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/177946
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States; Center for Weather and Climate, NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information, Madison, WI, United States; Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI, United States; Program in Atmospheric Sciences, Department of Geography, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bosma C.D.,Wright D.B.,Nguyen P.,et al. An intuitive metric to quantify and communicate tropical cyclone rainfall hazard[J],2020,101(2).
APA	Bosma C.D.,Wright D.B.,Nguyen P.,Kossin J.P.,Herndon D.C.,&Shepherd J.M..(2020).An intuitive metric to quantify and communicate tropical cyclone rainfall hazard.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,101(2).
MLA	Bosma C.D.,et al."An intuitive metric to quantify and communicate tropical cyclone rainfall hazard".Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101.2(2020).