气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Windows of opportunity for skillful forecasts subseasonal to seasonal and beyond

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0326.1
	Windows of opportunity for skillful forecasts subseasonal to seasonal and beyond
	Mariotti A.; Baggett C.; Barnes E.A.; Becker E.; Butler A.; Collins D.C.; Dirmeyer P.A.; Ferranti L.; Johnson N.C.; Jones J.; Kirtman B.P.; Lang A.L.; Molod A.; Newman M.; Robertson A.W.; Schubert S.; Waliser D.E.; Albers J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	00030007
起始页码	E608
结束页码	E625
卷号	101 期号:5
英文摘要	There is high demand and a growing expectation for predictions of environmental conditions that go beyond 0-14-day weather forecasts with outlooks extending to one or more seasons and beyond. This is driven by the needs of the energy, water management, and agriculture sectors, to name a few. There is an increasing realization that, unlike weather forecasts, prediction skill on longer time scales can leverage specific climate phenomena or conditions for a predictable signal above the weather noise. Currently, it is understood that these conditions are intermittent in time and have spatially heterogeneous impacts on skill, hence providing strategic windows of opportunity for skillful forecasts. Research points to such windows of opportunity, including El Niño or La Niña events, active periods of the Madden-Julian oscillation, disruptions of the stratospheric polar vortex, when certain large-scale atmospheric regimes are in place, or when persistent anomalies occur in the ocean or land surface. Gains could be obtained by increasingly developing prediction tools and metrics that strategically target these specific windows of opportunity. Across the globe, reevaluating forecasts in this manner could find value in forecasts previously discarded as not skillful. Users' expectations for prediction skill could be more adequately met, as they are better aware of when and where to expect skill and if the prediction is actionable. Given that there is still untapped potential, in terms of process understanding and prediction methodologies, it is safe to expect that in the future forecast opportunities will expand. Process research and the development of innovative methodologies will aid such progress. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agricultural robots; Climatology; Water management; Agriculture sectors; Environmental conditions; Innovative methodologies; Madden-Julian oscillation; Prediction methodology; Prediction tools; Process understanding; Stratospheric polar vortex; Weather forecasting
来源期刊	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/177897
作者单位	NOAA, Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, MD, United States; Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; NOAA, Innovim, LLC, College Park, MD, United States; University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States; NOAA, Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States; NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States; George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States; ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom; NOAA, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; Department of Water Resources, Sacramento, CA, United States; University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY, United States; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; NOAA, Physical Science Division, Boulder, CO, United States; International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY, United States; Scie...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mariotti A.,Baggett C.,Barnes E.A.,et al. Windows of opportunity for skillful forecasts subseasonal to seasonal and beyond[J],2020,101(5).
APA	Mariotti A..,Baggett C..,Barnes E.A..,Becker E..,Butler A..,...&Albers J..(2020).Windows of opportunity for skillful forecasts subseasonal to seasonal and beyond.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,101(5).
MLA	Mariotti A.,et al."Windows of opportunity for skillful forecasts subseasonal to seasonal and beyond".Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101.5(2020).