气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Surface pressure a more skillful predictor of normalized hurricane damage than maximum sustained wind

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0062.1
	Surface pressure a more skillful predictor of normalized hurricane damage than maximum sustained wind
	Klotzbach P.J.; Bell M.M.; Bowen S.G.; Gibney E.J.; Knapp K.R.; Schreck C.J.; Iii
发表日期	2020
ISSN	00030007
起始页码	E830
结束页码	E846
卷号	101 期号:6
英文摘要	Atlantic hurricane seasons have a long history of causing significant financial impacts, with Harvey, Irma, Maria, Florence, and Michael combining to incur more than 345 billion USD in direct economic damage during 2017-2018. While Michael's damage was primarily wind and storm surge-driven, Florence's and Harvey's damage was predominantly rainfall and inland flooddriven. Several revised scales have been proposed to replace the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS), which currently only categorizes the hurricane wind threat, while not explicitly handling the totality of storm impacts including storm surge and rainfall. However, most of these newly-proposed scales are not easily calculated in real-time, nor can they be reliably calculated historically. In particular, they depend on storm wind radii, which remain very uncertain. Herein, we analyze the relationship between normalized historical damage caused by continental United States (CONUS) landfalling hurricanes from 1900-2018 with both maximum sustained wind speed (Vmax) and minimum sea level pressure (MSLP). We show that MSLP is a more skillful predictor of normalized damage than Vmax, with a significantly higher rank correlation between normalized damage and MSLP (rrank = 0.77) than between normalized damage and Vmax (rrank = 0.66) for all CONUS landfalling hurricanes. MSLP has served as a much better predictor of hurricane damage in recent years than Vmax, with large hurricanes such as Ike (2008) and Sandy (2012) causing much more damage than anticipated from their SSHWS ranking. MSLP is also a more accurately-measured quantity than is Vmax, making it an ideal quantity for evaluating a hurricane's potential damage. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Floods; Rain; Sea level; Storms; Wind; Atlantic hurricane; Economic damages; Financial impacts; Hurricane damage; Rank correlation; Sea level pressure; Storm impacts; Surface pressures; Hurricanes
来源期刊	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/177868
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Aon, Chicago, IL, United States; Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science, UCAR, San Diego, CA, United States; NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, NC, United States; Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites-North Carolina, North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Klotzbach P.J.,Bell M.M.,Bowen S.G.,et al. Surface pressure a more skillful predictor of normalized hurricane damage than maximum sustained wind[J],2020,101(6).
APA	Klotzbach P.J..,Bell M.M..,Bowen S.G..,Gibney E.J..,Knapp K.R..,...&Iii.(2020).Surface pressure a more skillful predictor of normalized hurricane damage than maximum sustained wind.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,101(6).
MLA	Klotzbach P.J.,et al."Surface pressure a more skillful predictor of normalized hurricane damage than maximum sustained wind".Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101.6(2020).