气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0037.1
	Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction
	Merryfield W.J.; Baehr J.; Batté L.; Becker E.J.; Butler A.H.; Coelho C.A.S.; Danabasoglu G.; Dirmeyer P.A.; Doblas-Reyes F.J.; Domeisen D.I.V.; Ferranti L.; Ilynia T.; Kumar A.; Müller W.A.; Rixen M.; Robertson A.W.; Smith D.M.; Takaya Y.; Tuma M.; Vitart F.; White C.J.; Alvarez M.S.; Ardilouze C.; Attard H.; Baggett C.; Balmaseda M.A.; Beraki A.F.; Bhattacharjee P.S.; Bilbao R.; De Andrade F.M.; DeFlorio M.J.; Díaz L.B.; Ehsan M.A.; Fragkoulidis G.; Grainger S.; Green B.W.; Hell M.C.; Infanti J.M.; Isensee K.; Kataoka T.; Kirtman B.P.; Klingaman N.P.; Lee J.-Y.; Mayer K.; McKay R.; Mecking J.V.; Miller D.E.; Neddermann N.; Ng C.H.J.; Ossó A.; Pankatz K.; Peatman S.; Pegion K.; Perlwitz J.; Recalde-Coronel G.C.; Reintges A.; Renkl C.; Solaraju-Murali B.; Spring A.; Stan C.; Sun Y.Q.; Tozer C.R.; Vigaud N.; Woolnough S.; Yeager S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	00030007
起始页码	E869
结束页码	E896
卷号	101 期号:6
英文摘要	Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these time scales a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational, and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) time scales, while the focus broadly remains similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper-ocean temperatures, and their effects on the probabilities of high-impact meteorological events), understanding the roles of internal variability and externally forced variability such as anthropogenic warming in forecasts also becomes important. The S2S and S2D communities share common scientific and technical challenges. These include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the onset of model systematic errors; bias correction, calibration, and forecast quality assessment; model resolution; atmosphere-ocean coupling; sources and expectations for predictability; and linking research, operational forecasting, and end-user needs. In September 2018 a coordinated pair of international conferences, framed by the above challenges, was organized jointly by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). These conferences surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services. This article provides such a synthesis. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Decision making; Environmental impact; Storms; Systematic errors; Time measurement; Anthropogenic warming; Atmosphere-ocean coupling; Decadal predictions; Extratropical storms; Internal variability; Operational forecasting; Operational service; Technical challenges; Weather forecasting
来源期刊	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/177865
作者单位	Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada; Institute of Oceanography, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo France, CNRS, Toulouse, France; Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Chemical Sciences Division, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO, United States; CPTEC/INPE Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States; Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States; Barcelona Supercomputing Center, ICREA, Barcelona, Spain; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland; ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; Climate Prediction Cente...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Merryfield W.J.,Baehr J.,Batté L.,et al. Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction[J],2020,101(6).
APA	Merryfield W.J..,Baehr J..,Batté L..,Becker E.J..,Butler A.H..,...&Yeager S..(2020).Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,101(6).
MLA	Merryfield W.J.,et al."Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction".Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101.6(2020).