气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Challenges to understanding extreme weather changes in lower income countries

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DOI	10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0317.1
	Challenges to understanding extreme weather changes in lower income countries
	Otto F.E.L.; Harrington L.; Schmitt K.; Philip S.; Kew S.; van Oldenborgh G.J.; Singh R.; Kimutai J.; Wolski P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	00030007
起始页码	E1851
结束页码	E1860
卷号	101 期号:10
英文摘要	The science of event attribution has emerged to routinely answer the question whether and to what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of recently observed extreme weather events. In Europe a pilot program to operationalize the method started in November 2019, highlighting the demand for timely information on the role of climate change when it is needed most: in the direct aftermath of an extreme event. Independent of whether studies are provided operationally or as academic studies, the necessity of good observational data and well-verified climate models imply most attributions are currently made for highly developed countries only. Current attribution assessments therefore provide very little information about those events and regions where the largest damages and socio-economic losses are incurred. Arguably, these larger damages signify a much greater need for information on how the likelihood and intensity of such high-impact events have been changing and are likely to change in a warmer world. In short, why do we not focus event attribution research efforts on the whole world, and particularly events in the developing world? The reasons are not just societal and political but also scientific. We simply cannot attribute these events in the same probabilistic framework employed in most studies today. We outline six focus areas to lessen these barriers, but we will not overcome them in the near future. © 2020 American Meteorological Society
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Damage detection; Developing countries; Extreme weather; Losses; Developed countries; Developing world; Extreme weather events; High impact events; Observational data; Probabilistic framework; Research efforts; Socio-economics; Climate change
来源期刊	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/177795
作者单位	Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Osford, United Kingdom; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands; Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, Netherlands; African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; Kenya Meteorological Department, Nairobi, Kenya; African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Otto F.E.L.,Harrington L.,Schmitt K.,et al. Challenges to understanding extreme weather changes in lower income countries[J],2020,101(10).
APA	Otto F.E.L..,Harrington L..,Schmitt K..,Philip S..,Kew S..,...&Wolski P..(2020).Challenges to understanding extreme weather changes in lower income countries.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,101(10).
MLA	Otto F.E.L.,et al."Challenges to understanding extreme weather changes in lower income countries".Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101.10(2020).