气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Monsoons climate change assessment

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0335.1
	Monsoons climate change assessment
	Wang B.; Biasutti M.; Byrne M.P.; Castro C.; Chang C.-P.; Cook K.; Fu R.; Grimm A.M.; Ha K.-J.; Hendon H.; Kitoh A.; Krishnan R.; Lee J.-Y.; Li J.; Liu J.; Moise A.; Pascale S.; Roxy M.K.; Seth A.; Sui C.-H.; Turner A.; Yang S.; Yun K.-S.; Zhang L.; Zhou T.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	00030007
起始页码	E1
结束页码	E19
卷号	102 期号:1
英文摘要	Monsoon rainfall has profound economic and societal impacts for more than two-thirds of the global population. Here we provide a review on past monsoon changes and their primary drivers, the projected future changes, and key physical processes, and discuss challenges of the present and future modeling and outlooks. Continued global warming and urbanization over the past century has already caused a significant rise in the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events in all monsoon regions (high confidence). Observed changes in the mean monsoon rainfall vary by region with significant decadal variations. Northern Hemisphere land monsoon rainfall as a whole declined from 1950 to 1980 and rebounded after the 1980s, due to the competing influences of internal climate variability and radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosol forcing (high confidence); however, it remains a challenge to quantify their relative contributions. The CMIP6 models simulate better global monsoon intensity and precipitation over CMIP5 models, but common biases and large intermodal spreads persist. Nevertheless, there is high confidence that the frequency and intensity of monsoon extreme rainfall events will increase, alongside an increasing risk of drought over some regions. Also, land monsoon rainfall will increase in South Asia and East Asia (high confidence) and northern Africa (medium confidence), decrease in North America, and be unchanged in the Southern Hemisphere. Over the Asian–Australian monsoon region, the rainfall variability is projected to increase on daily to decadal scales. The rainy season will likely be lengthened in the Northern Hemisphere due to late retreat (especially over East Asia), but shortened in the Southern Hemisphere due to delayed onset. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric radiation; Global warming; Greenhouse gases; Rain; Climate change assessment; Decadal variations; Internal climate variability; Northern Hemispheres; Radiative forcings; Rainfall variability; Relative contribution; Southern Hemisphere; Atmospheric thermodynamics
来源期刊	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/177784
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of St Andrews, St. Andrews, United Kingdom; Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States; Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Department of Geological Sciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Department of Physics, Federal University of Paraná, Curitiba, Brazil; Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science and BK21, School of Earth and Environmental Systems, Pusan National ...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang B.,Biasutti M.,Byrne M.P.,et al. Monsoons climate change assessment[J],2021,102(1).
APA	Wang B..,Biasutti M..,Byrne M.P..,Castro C..,Chang C.-P..,...&Zhou T..(2021).Monsoons climate change assessment.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,102(1).
MLA	Wang B.,et al."Monsoons climate change assessment".Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 102.1(2021).