气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Scientific and human errors in a snow model intercomparison

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DOI	10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0329.1
	Scientific and human errors in a snow model intercomparison
	Menard C.B.; Essery R.; Krinner G.; Arduini G.; Bartlett P.; Boone A.; Brutel-Vuilmet C.; Burke E.; Cuntz M.; Dai Y.; Decharme B.; Dutra E.; Fang X.; Fierz C.; Gusev Y.; Hagemann S.; Haverd V.; Kim H.; Lafaysse M.; Marke T.; Nasonova O.; Nitta T.; Niwano M.; Pomeroy J.; Schädler G.; Semenov V.A.; Smirnova T.; Strasser U.; Swenson S.; Turkov D.; Wever N.; Yuan H.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	00030007
起始页码	E61
结束页码	E79
卷号	102 期号:1
英文摘要	Twenty-seven models participated in the Earth System Model–Snow Model Intercomparison Project (ESM-SnowMIP), the most data-rich MIP dedicated to snow modeling. Our findings do not support the hypothesis advanced by previous snow MIPs: evaluating models against more variables and providing evaluation datasets extended temporally and spatially does not facilitate identification of key new processes requiring improvement to model snow mass and energy budgets, even at point scales. In fact, the same modeling issues identified by previous snow MIPs arose: albedo is a major source of uncertainty, surface exchange parameterizations are problematic, and individual model performance is inconsistent. This lack of progress is attributed partly to the large number of human errors that led to anomalous model behavior and to numerous resubmissions. It is unclear how widespread such errors are in our field and others; dedicated time and resources will be needed to tackle this issue to prevent highly sophisticated models and their research outputs from being vulnerable because of avoidable human mistakes. The design of and the data available to successive snow MIPs were also questioned. Evaluation of models against bulk snow properties was found to be sufficient for some but inappropriate for more complex snow models whose skills at simulating internal snow properties remained untested. Discussions between the authors of this paper on the purpose of MIPs revealed varied, and sometimes contradictory, motivations behind their participation. These findings started a collaborative effort to adapt future snow MIPs to respond to the diverse needs of the community. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Model comparison; Model evaluation/performance; Snow; Snowpack
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Budget control; Errors; Uncertainty analysis; Earth system model; Energy budgets; Evaluating models; Individual modeling; Modeling behavior; Research outputs; Snow properties; Surface exchanges; Snow
来源期刊	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/177774
作者单位	School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Institut de Géosciences de l—Environnement, Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Grenoble, France; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom; Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Université de Lorraine, AgroParisTech, INRAE, UMR Silva, Nancy, France; School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China; Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universi-dade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal; Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada; Institute of Water Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation; Institut für Küstenforschung, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany; CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT, Australia; Institute of Industrial Science, Universi...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Menard C.B.,Essery R.,Krinner G.,et al. Scientific and human errors in a snow model intercomparison[J],2021,102(1).
APA	Menard C.B..,Essery R..,Krinner G..,Arduini G..,Bartlett P..,...&Yuan H..(2021).Scientific and human errors in a snow model intercomparison.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,102(1).
MLA	Menard C.B.,et al."Scientific and human errors in a snow model intercomparison".Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 102.1(2021).