气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Each 0.5°C of warming increases annual flood losses in China by more than US$60 billion

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DOI	10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0182.1
	Each 0.5°C of warming increases annual flood losses in China by more than US$60 billion
	Jiang T.; Su B.; Huang J.; Zhai J.; Xia J.; Tao H.; Wang Y.; Sun H.; Luo Y.; Zhang L.; Wang G.; Zhan C.; Xiong M.; Kundzewicz Z.W.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	00030007
起始页码	E1464
结束页码	E1474
卷号	101 期号:8
英文摘要	In the warming climate, flood risk is likely to increase over much of the globe. We present projections of changes of flood losses in China for a range of global warming scenarios, from 1.5° to 4.0°C above the preindustrial temperature, with a 0.5°C step. Projections of flood losses in China are based on river runoff simulations by a distributed hydrological model driven by multiple downscaled general circulation models, the national GDP projected at shared socioeconomic pathways, and the “intensity-loss rate” function. When interpreting changes caused by the combined effect of economic and climatic conditions, flood losses in China are projected to soar in the future, particularly in lowland regions subject to rapid economic growth. Under global warming of 1.5° and 4.0°C, in an average year, flood losses are projected to be, respectively, 4 and 17 times that at present. Pursuing the international climate policy target of limiting global warming is projected to reduce exposure to floods in China. In this way, flood losses in China can be reduced by tens of billions of U.S. dollars (on average, US$67 billion and up to 0.04% of GDP) for each 0.5°C that warming is reduced. Our study improves understanding of the impact of climatic and nonclimatic changes on flood risk. Our scientific contribution is the first study to quantify flood impacts across China under different development pathways (shared socioeconomic pathways) for a broad range of global warming levels. © 2020 American Meteorological Society
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Economics; Global warming; Climatic conditions; Combined effect; Distributed hydrological model; Economic growths; General circulation model; Pre-industrial; Scientific contributions; Warming climate; Flood damage
来源期刊	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/177753
作者单位	Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Institute for Disaster Risk Management, School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Institute for Disaster Risk Management, School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China; State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, China; Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; Institute of Ge...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jiang T.,Su B.,Huang J.,et al. Each 0.5°C of warming increases annual flood losses in China by more than US$60 billion[J],2021,101(8).
APA	Jiang T..,Su B..,Huang J..,Zhai J..,Xia J..,...&Kundzewicz Z.W..(2021).Each 0.5°C of warming increases annual flood losses in China by more than US$60 billion.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,101(8).
MLA	Jiang T.,et al."Each 0.5°C of warming increases annual flood losses in China by more than US$60 billion".Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101.8(2021).