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| DOI | 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0026.1 |
| Can the issuance of hazardous-weather warnings inform the attribution of extreme events to climate change? | |
| Durran D.R. | |
| 发表日期 | 2021 |
| ISSN | 00030007 |
| 起始页码 | E1452 |
| 结束页码 | E1463 |
| 卷号 | 101期号:8 |
| 英文摘要 | When extreme weather occurs, the question often arises whether the event was produced by climate change. Two types of errors are possible when attempting to answer this question. One type of error is underestimating the role of climate change, thereby failing to properly alert the public and appropriately stimulate efforts at adaptation and mitigation. The second type of error is overestimating the role of climate change, thereby elevating climate anxiety and potentially derailing important public discussions with false alarms. Long before societal concerns about global warming became widespread, meteorologists were addressing essentially the same trade-off when faced with a binary decision of whether to issue a warning for hazardous weather. Here we review forecast-verification statistics such as the probability of detection (POD) and the false alarm ratio (FAR) for hazardous-weather warnings and examine their potential application to extreme-event attribution in connection with climate change. Empirical and theoretical evidence suggests that adjusting tornado-warning thresholds in an attempt to reduce FAR produces even larger reductions in POD. Similar tradeoffs between improving FAR and degrading POD are shown to apply using a rubric for the attribution of extreme high temperatures to climate change. Although there are obviously significant differences between the issuance of hazardous-weather warnings and the attribution of extreme events to global warming, the experiences of the weather forecasting community can provide qualitative guidance for those attempting to set practical thresholds for extreme-event attribution in a changing climate. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| scopus关键词 | Economic and social effects; Errors; Global warming; Hazards; Meteorological problems; Changing climate; False alarm ratio; Forecast verifications; High temperature; Probability of detection; Societal concerns; Tornado warnings; Weather warnings; Weather forecasting |
| 来源期刊 | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
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| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/177747 |
| 作者单位 | Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Durran D.R.. Can the issuance of hazardous-weather warnings inform the attribution of extreme events to climate change?[J],2021,101(8). |
| APA | Durran D.R..(2021).Can the issuance of hazardous-weather warnings inform the attribution of extreme events to climate change?.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,101(8). |
| MLA | Durran D.R.."Can the issuance of hazardous-weather warnings inform the attribution of extreme events to climate change?".Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101.8(2021). |
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