气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): On the prospects for improved tropical cyclone track forecasts

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DOI	10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0166.1
	On the prospects for improved tropical cyclone track forecasts
	Zhou F.; Toth Z.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	00030007
起始页码	E2058
结束页码	E2077
卷号	101 期号:12
英文摘要	The success story of numerical weather prediction is often illustrated with the dramatic decrease of errors in tropical cyclone track forecasts over the past decades. In a recent essay, Landsea and Cangialosi, however, note a diminishing trend in the reduction of perceived positional error (PPE; difference between forecast and observed positions) in National Hurricane Center tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts as they contemplate whether “the approaching limit of predictability for tropical cyclone track prediction is near or has already been reached.” In this study we consider a different interpretation of the PPE data. First, we note that PPE is different from true positional error (TPE; difference between forecast and true positions) as it is influenced by the error in the observed position of TCs. PPE is still customarily used as a proxy for TPE since the latter is not directly measurable. As an alternative, TPE is estimated here with an inverse method, using PPE measurements and a theoretically based assumption about the exponential growth of TPE as a function of lead time. Eighty-nine percent variance in the behavior of 36-120-h lead-time 2001-17 seasonally averaged PPE measurements is explained with an error model using just four parameters. Assuming that the level of investments, and the pace of improvements to the observing, modeling, and data assimilation systems continue unabated, the four-parameter error model indicates that the time limit of predictability at the 181 nautical mile error level (n mi; 1 n mi = 1.85 km), reached at day 5 in 2017, may be extended beyond 6 and 8 days in 10 and 30 years' time, respectively. © 2020 American Meteorological Society
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Errors; Inverse problems; Storms; Tropics; Weather forecasting; Data assimilation systems; Error levels; Exponential growth; Inverse methods; Numerical weather prediction; Parameter error; Positional errors; Tropical cyclone; Hurricanes
来源期刊	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/177743
作者单位	Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, University of Chinese, Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Global Systems Laboratory, NOAA, OAR, ESRL, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhou F.,Toth Z.. On the prospects for improved tropical cyclone track forecasts[J],2021,101(12).
APA	Zhou F.,&Toth Z..(2021).On the prospects for improved tropical cyclone track forecasts.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,101(12).
MLA	Zhou F.,et al."On the prospects for improved tropical cyclone track forecasts".Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101.12(2021).