气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Differing trends in United States and European severe thunderstorm environments in a warming climate

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DOI	10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0004.1
	Differing trends in United States and European severe thunderstorm environments in a warming climate
	Taszarek M.; Allen J.T.; Brooks H.E.; Pilguj N.; Czernecki B.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	00030007
起始页码	E296
结束页码	E322
卷号	102 期号:2
英文摘要	Long-term trends in the historical frequency of environments supportive of atmospheric convection are unclear, and only partially follow the expectations of a warming climate. This uncertainty is driven by the lack of unequivocal changes in the ingredients for severe thunderstorms (i.e., conditional instability, sufficient low-level moisture, initiation mechanism, and vertical wind shear). ERA5 hybrid-sigma data allow for superior characterization of thermodynamic parameters including convective inhibition, which is very sensitive to the number of levels in the lower troposphere. Using hourly data we demonstrate that long-term decreases in instability and stronger convective inhibition cause a decline in the frequency of thunderstorm environments over the southern United States, particularly during summer. Conversely, increasingly favorable conditions for tornadoes are observed during winter across the Southeast. Over Europe, a pronounced multidecadal increase in low-level moisture has provided positive trends in thunderstorm environments over the south, central, and north, with decreases over the east due to strengthening convective inhibition. Modest increases in vertical wind shear and storm-relative helicity have been observed over northwestern Europe and the Great Plains. Both continents exhibit negative trends in the fraction of environments with likely convective initiation. This suggests that despite increasing instability, thunderstorms in a warming climate may be less likely to develop due to stronger convective inhibition and lower relative humidity. Decreases in convective initiation and resulting precipitation may have long-term implications for agriculture, water availability, and the frequency of severe weather such as large hail and tornadoes. Our results also indicate that trends observed over the United States cannot be assumed to be representative of other continents. © 2021 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Climate change; Lightning; Reanalysis data; Thunderstorms; Tornadoes; Trends
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agricultural robots; Atmospheric humidity; Moisture; Natural convection; Precipitation (meteorology); Tornadoes; Atmospheric convection; Convective inhibition; Convective initiation; Favorable conditions; Initiation mechanism; Thermodynamic parameter; Vertical wind shear; Water availability; Thunderstorms
来源期刊	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/177709
作者单位	Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznan, Poland; National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK, United States; Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States; Central Michigan University, Mount Pleasant, MI, United States; National Severe Storms Laboratory, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States; Department of Climatology and Atmosphere Protection, University of Wrocław, Wrocław, Poland; Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznan, Poland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Taszarek M.,Allen J.T.,Brooks H.E.,et al. Differing trends in United States and European severe thunderstorm environments in a warming climate[J],2021,102(2).
APA	Taszarek M.,Allen J.T.,Brooks H.E.,Pilguj N.,&Czernecki B..(2021).Differing trends in United States and European severe thunderstorm environments in a warming climate.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,102(2).
MLA	Taszarek M.,et al."Differing trends in United States and European severe thunderstorm environments in a warming climate".Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 102.2(2021).