气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A pilot forecasting system for epidemic thunderstorm asthma in Southeastern Australia

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0140.1
	A pilot forecasting system for epidemic thunderstorm asthma in Southeastern Australia
	Bannister T.; Ebert E.E.; Silver J.; Newbigin E.; Lampugnani E.R.; Hughes N.; Looker C.; Mulvenna V.; Jones P.J.; Davies J.M.; Suphioglu C.; Beggs P.J.; Emmerson K.M.; Huete A.; Nguyen H.; Williams T.; Douglas P.; Wain A.; Carroll M.; Csutoros D.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	00030007
起始页码	E399
结束页码	E420
卷号	102 期号:2
英文摘要	In November 2016, an unprecedented epidemic thunderstorm asthma event in Victoria, Australia, resulted in many thousands of people developing breathing difficulties in a very short period of time, including 10 deaths, and created extreme demand across the Victorian health services. To better prepare for future events, a pilot forecasting system for epidemic thunderstorm asthma (ETSA) risk has been developed for Victoria. The system uses a categorical risk-based approach, combining operational forecasting of gusty winds in severe thunderstorms with statistical forecasts of high ambient grass pollen concentrations, which together generate the risk of epidemic thunderstorm asthma. This pilot system provides the first routine daily epidemic thunderstorm asthma risk forecasting service in the world that covers a wide area, and integrates into the health, ambulance, and emergency management sector. Epidemic thunderstorm asthma events have historically occurred infrequently, and no event of similar magnitude has impacted the Victorian health system since. However, during the first three years of the pilot, 2017–19, two high asthma presentation events and four moderate asthma presentation events were identified from public hospital emergency department records. The ETSA risk forecasts showed skill in discriminating between days with and without health impacts. However, even with hindsight of the actual weather and airborne grass pollen conditions, some high asthma presentation events occurred in districts that were assessed as low risk for ETSA, reflecting the challenge of predicting this unusual phenomenon. © 2021 American Meteorological Society.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Diseases; Epidemiology; Forecasting; Hospitals; Risk assessment; Risk management; Service industry; Thunderstorms; Emergency management; Forecasting system; Hospital emergency departments; Operational forecasting; Risk based approaches; Risk forecasting; South-eastern Australia; Victoria , Australia; Health risks
来源期刊	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/177704
作者单位	Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia; School of Biosciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia; Department of Health and Human Services, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia; School of Biomedical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Metro North Hospital and Health Service, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Geelong, VIC, Australia; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Oceans and Atmosphere, CSIRO, Aspendale, VIC, Australia; School of Life Sciences, University of Technology Sydney, Ultimo, NSW, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bannister T.,Ebert E.E.,Silver J.,et al. A pilot forecasting system for epidemic thunderstorm asthma in Southeastern Australia[J],2021,102(2).
APA	Bannister T..,Ebert E.E..,Silver J..,Newbigin E..,Lampugnani E.R..,...&Csutoros D..(2021).A pilot forecasting system for epidemic thunderstorm asthma in Southeastern Australia.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,102(2).
MLA	Bannister T.,et al."A pilot forecasting system for epidemic thunderstorm asthma in Southeastern Australia".Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 102.2(2021).