气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Research on low-carbon energy transformation of China necessary to achieve the Paris agreement goals: A global perspective

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105137
	Research on low-carbon energy transformation of China necessary to achieve the Paris agreement goals: A global perspective
	Zhou S.; Tong Q.; Pan X.; Cao M.; Wang H.; Gao J.; Ou X.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1409883
卷号	95
英文摘要	The low-carbon energy transformation of China is crucial for achieving the global warming target of the Paris Agreement, which is highly dependent on historical emissions levels and the future emissions pathway of various regions of the globe. Based on the Global Change Assessment Model, this study considered three scenarios from a global perspective and focused on energy consumption, CO2 emissions pathways, deeper emissions reduction (DER), and contribution to global emissions reduction in China. Compared with the Nationally Determined Contribution scenario, to achieve the target of 2 °C or 1.5 °C warming, the peak time of CO2 emissions in China should be advanced to 2025 or even to 2020, and CO2 emissions in China by 2050 should be reduced substantially by 30% or 90%, respectively. Moreover, more than 80% of the DER of 3.1 and 8.6 Gt CO2, respectively, came from the power and industrial sectors. China's contribution to global DER, especially its recent efforts, was found higher than its cumulative emissions level. Correspondingly, China's energy system should undergo substantial low-carbon transformation. By 2050, total primary energy consumption should be increased by about 20% from 2015 level, coal share should decrease to 13%–32%, natural gas share should steadily increase slowly, and the share of non-fossil-fuel energy should rise to 40%–63%. Meanwhile, the share of non-fossil-fuel electricity should increase substantially to 54%–77%. Sensitive analysis of baseline scenario setting shows that, it would be possible for China to achieve the target of the Paris Agreement with a higher level of emissions. © 2021
英文关键词	Carbon dioxide; China; Energy transformation; Low-carbon energy; Paris agreement
scopus关键词	Carbon; Carbon dioxide; Emission control; Energy utilization; Global warming; Cumulative emissions; Emissions reduction; Global perspective; Historical emissions; Low carbon energies; Low carbon transformations; Primary energy consumption; Sensitive analysis; Coal industry
来源期刊	Energy Economics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/177222
作者单位	Tsinghua University—Zhang Jiagang Joint Institute for Hydrogen Energy and Lithium-Ion Battery Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Academy of Chinese Energy Strategy, China University of Petroleum, Beijing, Beijing 102249, China; Key Lab of Virtual Geographic Environment, Ministry of Education of PRC, Nanjing Normal University210023, China; Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agriculture Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhou S.,Tong Q.,Pan X.,et al. Research on low-carbon energy transformation of China necessary to achieve the Paris agreement goals: A global perspective[J],2021,95.
APA	Zhou S..,Tong Q..,Pan X..,Cao M..,Wang H..,...&Ou X..(2021).Research on low-carbon energy transformation of China necessary to achieve the Paris agreement goals: A global perspective.Energy Economics,95.
MLA	Zhou S.,et al."Research on low-carbon energy transformation of China necessary to achieve the Paris agreement goals: A global perspective".Energy Economics 95(2021).