气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Influence of 5G technology on the peak of China's carbon emission [5G对中国碳排放峰值的影响研究]

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	Influence of 5G technology on the peak of China's carbon emission [5G对中国碳排放峰值的影响研究]
	Tan M.; Peng Y.; Ma R.; Qin H.-S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	10006923
起始页码	1447
结束页码	1454
卷号	41 期号:3
英文摘要	Concerning the current situation of 5G technology development, this paper predicts direct carbon emissions generated by 5G base stations in the next 20 years, with Holt index smoothing method and dynamic analysis. The predictive model showed that the construction of 5G base stations might be saturated around 2038, with the number of 14.34 million. Considering the development of 5G technology and its promotion of other industries that may affect the carbon emissions, the input-output method and grayscale time prediction method were also used to evaluate the indirect carbon emissions. The results show that, if 5G station work in low-load (lower than 30%), direct carbon emission will be 142.61 Mt per year in 2038 when carbon emission peak; or else it would be 196.26 Mt in a full-load situation. Based on two different peak-reaching scenarios of carbon emissions in China, the impacts of direct and indirect carbon emissions caused by 5G technology on peak-reaching time and peak values were comprehensively analyzed. Last, the robustness test was conducted on the predicted results. The results revealed that the impact of 5G technology on carbon emissions of industries will reach its peak in 2030 under the actual GDP scenario, with the value of 255.96 Mt, and the increase of overall carbon emissions caused by 5G technology before 2030 was dominated by indirect carbon emission, while the increase of social carbon emission after 2030 was dominated by direct carbon emission. Comprehensively considering the development of 5G technology, the peak time of China's carbon emission will be delayed by at least 2 years, and the corresponding peak carbon emission would be increased by at least 383.96 Mt. It also implied that the Chinese government had to reduce the energy consumption level of base stations, control the number of base stations and avoid the low-load operation caused by repeated construction of 5G base stations, to reduce the additional carbon emissions caused by 5G and control the total amount of carbon dioxide. © 2021, Editorial Board of China Environmental Science. All right reserved.
英文关键词	5G technology; Indirect carbon emission; Peak of carbon emission; Scenario analysis
scopus关键词	Base stations; Carbon dioxide; Energy utilization; Predictive analytics; Chinese Government; Energy consumption levels; Indirect carbon emissions; Input-output methods; Predictive modeling; Technology development; Time prediction method; Total amount of carbons; 5G mobile communication systems
来源期刊	Zhongguo Huanjing Kexue/China Environmental Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/177212
作者单位	Hubei Cooperative Innovation Center for Carbon Emission Trading, Hubei University of Economics, Wuhan, 430205, China; School of Low-carbon Economics, Hubei University of Economics, Wuhan, 430205, China; School of Economics, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200433, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tan M.,Peng Y.,Ma R.,等. Influence of 5G technology on the peak of China's carbon emission [5G对中国碳排放峰值的影响研究][J],2021,41(3).
APA	Tan M.,Peng Y.,Ma R.,&Qin H.-S..(2021).Influence of 5G technology on the peak of China's carbon emission [5G对中国碳排放峰值的影响研究].Zhongguo Huanjing Kexue/China Environmental Science,41(3).
MLA	Tan M.,et al."Influence of 5G technology on the peak of China's carbon emission [5G对中国碳排放峰值的影响研究]".Zhongguo Huanjing Kexue/China Environmental Science 41.3(2021).