气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings

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DOI	10.1007/s11625-021-00913-2
	EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings
	Sugiyama M.; Fujimori S.; Wada K.; Oshiro K.; Kato E.; Komiyama R.; Silva Herran D.; Matsuo Y.; Shiraki H.; Ju Y.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	18624065
起始页码	355
结束页码	374
卷号	16 期号:2
英文摘要	In June, 2019, Japan submitted its mid-century strategy to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and pledged 80% emissions cuts by 2050. The strategy has not gone through a systematic analysis, however. The present study, Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), employs five energy-economic and integrated assessment models to evaluate the nationally determined contribution and mid-century strategy of Japan. EMF 35 JMIP conducts a suite of sensitivity analyses on dimensions including emissions constraints, technology availability, and demand projections. The results confirm that Japan needs to deploy all of its mitigation strategies at a substantial scale, including energy efficiency, electricity decarbonization, and end-use electrification. Moreover, they suggest that with the absence of structural changes in the economy, heavy industries will be one of the hardest to decarbonize. Partitioning of the sum of squares based on a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) reconfirms that mitigation strategies, such as energy efficiency and electrification, are fairly robust across models and scenarios, but that the cost metrics are uncertain. There is a wide gap of policy strength and breadth between the current policy instruments and those suggested by the models. Japan should strengthen its climate action in all aspects of society and economy to achieve its long-term target. © 2021, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Carbon neutrality; Climate change mitigation; Integrated assessment; Long-term strategy; National climate policy; Net-zero emissions; Uncertainty
来源期刊	Sustainability Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/177102
作者单位	Institute for Future Initiatives, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-0033, Japan; Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto daigaku-katsura, Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto, 615-8530, Japan; National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan; Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, 9-2 Kizugawadai, Kizugawa, Kyoto 619-0292, Japan; Institute of Applied Energy, 1-14-2 Nishi-Shimbashi, Minato, Tokyo, 105-0003, Japan; School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Hongo 7-3-1, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8656, Japan; Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), 2108-11 Kamiyamaguchi, Hayama, Kanagawa, 240-0115, Japan; Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, Kachidoki 1-chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo, 104-0054, Japan; The University of Shiga Prefecture, 2500, Hassaka-cho, Hikone-City, Shiga, 522-8533, Japan; International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, 2361, Austria
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sugiyama M.,Fujimori S.,Wada K.,等. EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings[J],2021,16(2).
APA	Sugiyama M..,Fujimori S..,Wada K..,Oshiro K..,Kato E..,...&Ju Y..(2021).EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings.Sustainability Science,16(2).
MLA	Sugiyama M.,et al."EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings".Sustainability Science 16.2(2021).