气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): CO2 and air pollutants emissions under different scenarios predicted by a regional energy consumption modeling system for Shanghai; China

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DOI	10.3390/atmos11091006
	CO2 and air pollutants emissions under different scenarios predicted by a regional energy consumption modeling system for Shanghai; China
	Wang J.; Zhang Y.; Wu L.; Ma W.; Chen L.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	20734433
卷号	11 期号:9
英文摘要	About 75% energy demand and emissions all concentrate in urban areas, especially in the metropolises, placing a heavy burden on both the energy supply system and the environment system. To explore low emission pathways and provide policy recommendations for the Shanghai energy system and the environmental system to reach the carbon dioxide (CO2) peak by 2030 and attain emission reduction targets for local air pollutants (LAPs), a regional energy-environment optimization model was developed in this study, considering system costs, socio-economic development and technology. To verify the reliability of the model simulation and evaluate the model risk, a historical scenario was defined to calculate the emissions for 2004-2014, and the data were compared with the bottom-up emission inventory results. By considering four scenarios, we simulated the energy consumption and emissions in the period of 2020-2030 from the perspective of energy policies, economic measures and technology updates. We found that CO2 emissions might exceed the amount of 250 million tons by the end of 2020 under the current policy, and carbon tax with a price of 40 CNY per ton of carbon dioxide is an imperative measure to lower carbon emissions. Under the constraints, the emissions amount of SO2, NOx, PM10, and PM2.5 will be reduced by 95.3-180.8, 207.8-357.1, 149.4-274.5, and 59.5-119.8 Kt in 2030, respectively. © 2020 by the authors.
英文关键词	CO2; Energy-environment system; LAPs; Shanghai; TIMES model
scopus关键词	Carbon dioxide; Economic and social effects; Economics; Emission control; Energy policy; Energy utilization; Environmental technology; Risk perception; Sulfur dioxide; Emission inventories; Emission reduction targets; Energy supply system; Environment optimization; Environmental systems; Policy recommendations; Regional energy consumption; Socio-economic development; Air pollution; atmospheric pollution; carbon dioxide; carbon emission; emission inventory; energy use; modeling; scenario analysis; China; Shanghai
来源期刊	Atmosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/176815
作者单位	Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention (LAP3), Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200438, China; Big Data Institute for Carbon Emission and Environmental Pollution, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200438, China; School of Economics, Center for Energy Economics and Strategies Studies, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200438, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang J.,Zhang Y.,Wu L.,et al. CO2 and air pollutants emissions under different scenarios predicted by a regional energy consumption modeling system for Shanghai; China[J],2020,11(9).
APA	Wang J.,Zhang Y.,Wu L.,Ma W.,&Chen L..(2020).CO2 and air pollutants emissions under different scenarios predicted by a regional energy consumption modeling system for Shanghai; China.Atmosphere,11(9).
MLA	Wang J.,et al."CO2 and air pollutants emissions under different scenarios predicted by a regional energy consumption modeling system for Shanghai; China".Atmosphere 11.9(2020).