气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Pathway optimization of China's carbon emission reduction and its provincial allocation under temperature control threshold

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111034
	Pathway optimization of China's carbon emission reduction and its provincial allocation under temperature control threshold
	Wu F.; Huang N.; Liu G.; Niu L.; Qiao Z.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	3014797
卷号	271
英文摘要	As the largest carbon emitter in the world, China faces great pressure to fulfill the temperature control targets, i.e., 2 °C and 1.5 °C, proposed in the Paris Agreement. Thus, selecting a development path that could both meet the temperature targets and economic growth is essential and worth investigating. We propose an optimization model to analyze China's carbon dioxide emission paths from 2010 to 2050 in three scenarios, namely baseline, and 1.5 °C and 2 °C target scenarios. The marginal cost of carbon abatement in China's 30 provinces (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Tibet) were also calculated using the quadratic directional distance function model, and the quotas of carbon dioxide emission among provinces were allocated. Carbon dioxide emission peak will occur in 2040 under the 2 °C target scenario and in 2030 under the 1.5 °C target scenario. The marginal cost of carbon abatement to achieve the 1.5 °C goal is approximately 1.6 times more expensive than the 2 °C goal. We suggest to implement emission reduction policies in the Eastern coastal areas of China and to allocate greater carbon dioxide emission quotas in under-developed areas in the Central and Western regions. Provincial quota allocation may also help to balance regional development and achieve the mutually beneficial goal of economic growth and carbon emission reduction in China. Our findings provide practical guidance on achieving carbon dioxide emission reduction and critical enlightenments on policymaking. © 2020
英文关键词	Carbon dioxide emission reduction; Optimal emission path; Paris agreement; Quadratic directional distance function model; Quotas allocation; Temperature control threshold
scopus关键词	carbon dioxide; carbon dioxide; carbon dioxide; carbon emission; economic growth; emission control; environmental economics; international agreement; optimization; reduction; regional development; temperature profile; Article; calibration; carbon allocation; carbon footprint; China; economic development; mathematical model; parameters; process optimization; seashore; thermoregulation; China; France; Hong Kong; Macao; Taiwan; temperature; Tibet; China; Hong Kong; Macau; Taiwan; Xizang; Carbon Dioxide; China; Hong Kong; Macau; Paris; Taiwan; Temperature; Tibet
来源期刊	Journal of Environmental Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/176783
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China; School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu F.,Huang N.,Liu G.,et al. Pathway optimization of China's carbon emission reduction and its provincial allocation under temperature control threshold[J],2020,271.
APA	Wu F.,Huang N.,Liu G.,Niu L.,&Qiao Z..(2020).Pathway optimization of China's carbon emission reduction and its provincial allocation under temperature control threshold.Journal of Environmental Management,271.
MLA	Wu F.,et al."Pathway optimization of China's carbon emission reduction and its provincial allocation under temperature control threshold".Journal of Environmental Management 271(2020).