气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Energy-transition foresight: Between economic modelling and the analysis of strategic scenarios [Prospective des transitions énergétiques: Entre modélisation économique et analyse des scénarios stratégiques]

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	Energy-transition foresight: Between economic modelling and the analysis of strategic scenarios [Prospective des transitions énergétiques: Entre modélisation économique et analyse des scénarios stratégiques]
	Criqui P.; Waisman H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0337307X
起始页码	29
结束页码	48
卷号	2020-October 期号:438
英文摘要	While many countries are pondering their responses to the economic crisis arising from the Covid-19 pandemic and as the question faces them of how to articulate these with strategies to fight climate change, what can energy-transition foresight bring to the table? Continuing the 'Energy-Climate' series of articles begun in these pages in March, Patrick Criqui and Henri Waisman offer an analysis of the various foresight tools developed over the last half-century to inform decisions in the area of energy transition. After going back over the history of the development of integrated energy-economy-environment modelling studies, which had their golden age in the period 1992-2014, they stress the limits this kind of foresight has run up against internationally, beginning with the Paris Agreements, which encouraged the reintroduction of the 'political-economy' dimension into transition scenarios. Since then, a new approach has consisted in combining scoping based on the comprehensive integrated models approach with na-tional modelling, in order to reconcile international objectives of decar-bonization with the socio-economic priorities and context specific to each state. The authors outline the guiding principles of foresight exercises in this area (which draw on the experi-ence of the National Debate on energy transition in France) and pres-ent an example of implementation in the shape of the Deep Decarboni-zation Pathways Project. Lastly, they mention various lines of strategic thinking aiming towards carbon neutrality - a key point in these being a change in lifestyles - and the constraints inherent in having to gain society's acceptance for such measures. This broad conspectus of the evolution of energy-transition foresight will be an essential tool for taking long-term exigencies into account in the strategies currently being drawn up for overcoming the present crisis. © 2020 Futuribles. All rights reserved.
来源期刊	Futuribles: Analyse et Prospective
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/176612
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Criqui P.,Waisman H.. Energy-transition foresight: Between economic modelling and the analysis of strategic scenarios [Prospective des transitions énergétiques: Entre modélisation économique et analyse des scénarios stratégiques][J],2020,2020-October(438).
APA	Criqui P.,&Waisman H..(2020).Energy-transition foresight: Between economic modelling and the analysis of strategic scenarios [Prospective des transitions énergétiques: Entre modélisation économique et analyse des scénarios stratégiques].Futuribles: Analyse et Prospective,2020-October(438).
MLA	Criqui P.,et al."Energy-transition foresight: Between economic modelling and the analysis of strategic scenarios [Prospective des transitions énergétiques: Entre modélisation économique et analyse des scénarios stratégiques]".Futuribles: Analyse et Prospective 2020-October.438(2020).