气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): South Africa after Paris-fracking its way to the NDCs?

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DOI	10.3389/fenrg.2019.00020
	South Africa after Paris-fracking its way to the NDCs?
	Orthofer C.L.; Huppmann D.; Krey V.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	2296598X
卷号	7 期号:MAR
英文摘要	South Africa is facing the triple challenge of (a) fuelling economic development and meeting the growing energy demand; (b) increasing the reliability of the electricity system; and (c) ensuring that domestic greenhouse gas emissions peak no later than 2030 to meet its nationally determined contributions (NDC) under the 2015 Paris Agreement. Recently discovered domestic shale gas reserves are being considered as a potential new energy source to provide clean, reliable and cheap electricity while mitigating greenhouse gas emissions relative to the dominant coal sector. In order to determine if shale gas can play a viable role in solving South Africa's energy trilemma, we apply a country-level version of the integrated assessment model MESSAGEix to analyze and quantify the interdependencies between shale gas, the energy system and South Africa's greenhouse gas emissions trajectory. The data and scripts to generate this study will be made available at https://github.com/tum-ewk/message_ix_south_africa following the publication of this manuscript. Our results indicate that shale gas extraction costs must be below 3 USD/GJ for this energy source to reach a significant share in the fuel mix; this is well below current cost estimates. If, however, low-cost shale gas is available, both coal and low-carbon sources are replaced by natural gas. Whether carbon dioxide emissions increase or decrease as a result depends on the stringency of the climate change mitigation policy in place: without carbon pricing, natural gas replaces coal and mitigates harmful emissions; under high carbon prices, power generation from coal is phased out in any case, and natural gas competes with zero-carbon renewables, leading to an increase of emissions compared to a no-shale scenario. Orthofer, Huppmann and Krey.
英文关键词	Carbon price; COP 21; Integrated assessment modeling; MESSAGEix; NDC; Scenario analysis
scopus关键词	Carbon dioxide; Coal; Cost benefit analysis; Cost estimating; Economics; Global warming; Greenhouse gases; Natural gas; Proven reserves; Shale gas; Carbon price; COP 21; Integrated assessment models; MESSAGEix; Scenario analysis; Gas emissions
来源期刊	Frontiers in Energy Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/176521
作者单位	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Orthofer C.L.,Huppmann D.,Krey V.. South Africa after Paris-fracking its way to the NDCs?[J],2019,7(MAR).
APA	Orthofer C.L.,Huppmann D.,&Krey V..(2019).South Africa after Paris-fracking its way to the NDCs?.Frontiers in Energy Research,7(MAR).
MLA	Orthofer C.L.,et al."South Africa after Paris-fracking its way to the NDCs?".Frontiers in Energy Research 7.MAR(2019).