气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The impact of regional convergence in energy-intensive industries on China 's CO 2 emissions and emission goals

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DOI	10.1016/j.eneco.2019.01.024
	The impact of regional convergence in energy-intensive industries on China 's CO 2 emissions and emission goals
	Wang J.; Hu M.; Tukker A.; Rodrigues J.F.D.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1409883
起始页码	512
结束页码	523
卷号	80
英文摘要	In order to respond to climate change, China has committed to reduce national carbon intensity by 40–45% in 2020 and 60–65% in 2030, relative to 2005. Given that energy-intensive industries represent ~80% of total CO 2 emissions in China and that China is a large and diverse country, this paper aims to investigate the potential contribution of regional convergence in energy-intensive industries to CO 2 emissions reduction and to meeting China 's emissions goals. To the best of our knowledge this matter has never been explored before. Using panel data from 2001 to 2015, we build three scenarios of future carbon intensities: business as usual (BAU), frontier (based on the directional distance function, in which all regions reach the efficiency frontier) and best available technology (BAT, in which all regions adopt the lowest-emitting technology). The frontier and BAT scenarios represent a weak and a strong form of regional convergence, respectively, and the BAU assumes that it develops following historical patterns. We then use the Kaya identity to estimate CO 2 emissions up to 2030 under the three scenarios. Our results are as follows: (1) Under BAU, the CO 2 emissions of energy-intensive industries increase from 7382.8 Mt in 2015 to 8127.6 Mt in 2030. Under the frontier scenario the emissions in 2030 are 44.23% lower than under business as usual, while under the BAT scenario this value becomes 84.81%. Electricity and ferrous metals are the sectors that most contribute to the reduction potential. (2) Even under BAU the carbon intensity of energy-intensive industries as a whole and all of its constituent sub-sectors except for electricity will decrease by more than the nationally-mandated averages. (3) Regional convergence could help the energy-intensive industries peak its CO 2 emissions before 2030, while under BAU the absolute emissions of the energy-intensive industries keep increasing. The Author(s)
英文关键词	CO 2 emissions; Energy-intensive industries; Regional convergence; Scenario analysis
scopus关键词	Carbon; Climate change; Emission control; Best available technologies; Carbon intensity of energies; CO2 emissions; Directional distance function; Efficiency frontiers; Energy intensive industries; Regional convergence; Scenario analysis; Carbon dioxide; carbon emission; convergence; emission control; energy market; energy planning; panel data; regional economy; scenario analysis; China; Torreya nucifera
来源期刊	Energy Economics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/176431
作者单位	Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, Einsteinweg 2, Leiden, CC 2333, Netherlands; College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China; School of Construction Management and Real Estate, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400045, China; Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research TNO, Anna van Buerenplein 1, The Hague, DA 2595, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang J.,Hu M.,Tukker A.,et al. The impact of regional convergence in energy-intensive industries on China 's CO 2 emissions and emission goals[J],2019,80.
APA	Wang J.,Hu M.,Tukker A.,&Rodrigues J.F.D..(2019).The impact of regional convergence in energy-intensive industries on China 's CO 2 emissions and emission goals.Energy Economics,80.
MLA	Wang J.,et al."The impact of regional convergence in energy-intensive industries on China 's CO 2 emissions and emission goals".Energy Economics 80(2019).