气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): China’s carbon dioxide emissions from cement production toward 2030 and multivariate statistical analysis of cement consumption and peaking time at provincial levels

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11356-019-05982-6
	China’s carbon dioxide emissions from cement production toward 2030 and multivariate statistical analysis of cement consumption and peaking time at provincial levels
	Du Z.; Wei J.; Cen K.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	9441344
起始页码	28372
结束页码	28383
卷号	26 期号:27
英文摘要	China, the largest developing country, is the world largest cement producer and the largest cement-consuming nation. Although China’s cement output reached its peak in 2014, regions, i.e., Fujian and Yunnan provinces, were no peaking until 2016. At the same time, rare studies referred to China’s cement consumption and CO2 emissions from the perspective of cement consumption at the provincial level. We developed the S-Logistic, polynomial model, and ARIMA model to study the peaking time of cement consumption at the provincial level, and we also projected China’s cement consumption and CO2 emissions toward 2030. Meanwhile, the discrepancies of peaking time and cumulative cement consumption per capita (CCCPC) among provinces were also studied based on GDP per capita and urbanization rate (UR). The results are that the CCCPC respectively in the range of 22–34 ton, 18–25 ton, and 17–27 ton in the eastern, intermediate, and western zone when cement consumption reached its peak. We draw the following conclusions that the CCCPC in 2030 could reach ~ 43 ton and the projected cement consumption is ~ 1252.72 Mt, which accounts for 50% of that in 2017, and cement CO2 emissions are at the range of 488.19–510.90 MtCO2 in 2030. Furthermore, capacity replacement, controlling new capacity and eliminating backward capacity are significant of greenhouse gas emission reduction not only for China, but also for the global cement industry., Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	CCCPC; Cement; China; CO2; Peak; Provincial level
scopus关键词	carbon dioxide; carbon emission; cement (construction material); environmental economics; greenhouse gas; Gross Domestic Product; multivariate analysis; statistical analysis; urbanization; China; Fujian; Yunnan; carbon dioxide; analysis; building material; chemistry; China; urbanization; Carbon Dioxide; China; Construction Materials; Urbanization
来源期刊	Environmental Science and Pollution Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/176351
作者单位	School of Geosciences and Resources, Baoding University of Technology, Baoding, 071000, China; School of Earth Sciences and Resources, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing, 100083, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Du Z.,Wei J.,Cen K.. China’s carbon dioxide emissions from cement production toward 2030 and multivariate statistical analysis of cement consumption and peaking time at provincial levels[J],2019,26(27).
APA	Du Z.,Wei J.,&Cen K..(2019).China’s carbon dioxide emissions from cement production toward 2030 and multivariate statistical analysis of cement consumption and peaking time at provincial levels.Environmental Science and Pollution Research,26(27).
MLA	Du Z.,et al."China’s carbon dioxide emissions from cement production toward 2030 and multivariate statistical analysis of cement consumption and peaking time at provincial levels".Environmental Science and Pollution Research 26.27(2019).