气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5 °C warming

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DOI	10.1038/s41467-018-07999-w
	Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5 °C warming
	Smith C.J.; Forster P.M.; Allen M.; Fuglestvedt J.; Millar R.J.; Rogelj J.; Zickfeld K.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	20411723
卷号	10 期号:1
英文摘要	Committed warming describes how much future warming can be expected from historical emissions due to inertia in the climate system. It is usually defined in terms of the level of warming above the present for an abrupt halt of emissions. Owing to socioeconomic constraints, this situation is unlikely, so we focus on the committed warming from present-day fossil fuel assets. Here we show that if carbon-intensive infrastructure is phased out at the end of its design lifetime from the end of 2018, there is a 64% chance that peak global mean temperature rise remains below 1.5 °C. Delaying mitigation until 2030 considerably reduces the likelihood that 1.5 °C would be attainable even if the rate of fossil fuel retirement was accelerated. Although the challenges laid out by the Paris Agreement are daunting, we indicate 1.5 °C remains possible and is attainable with ambitious and immediate emission reduction across all sectors., The Author(s).
scopus关键词	carbon; carbon dioxide; fossil fuel; agriculture; Article; reduction (chemistry); sensitivity analysis; temperature; warming
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/176281
作者单位	Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom; Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, United Kingdom; University of Oxford Department of Physics, Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PU, United Kingdom; CICERO, Postboks 1129 Blindern, Oslo, 0318, Norway; College of Engineering, Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QF, United Kingdom; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria; Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 8001, Switzerland; Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC F5A 1S6, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Smith C.J.,Forster P.M.,Allen M.,et al. Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5 °C warming[J],2019,10(1).
APA	Smith C.J..,Forster P.M..,Allen M..,Fuglestvedt J..,Millar R.J..,...&Zickfeld K..(2019).Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5 °C warming.Nature Communications,10(1).
MLA	Smith C.J.,et al."Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5 °C warming".Nature Communications 10.1(2019).