气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The evolution of Chinese industrial CO2 emissions 2000–2050: A review and meta-analysis of historical drivers; projections and policy goals

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.rser.2019.109433
	The evolution of Chinese industrial CO2 emissions 2000–2050: A review and meta-analysis of historical drivers; projections and policy goals
	Wang J.; Rodrigues J.F.D.; Hu M.; Behrens P.; Tukker A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	13640321
卷号	116
英文摘要	The emissions of the Chinese industrial sector alone comprise 24.1% of global emissions (7.8 GtCyr−1 in 2015). This makes Chinese industrial emissions of unique national and international relevance in climate policy. This study reports a literature survey that quantitatively describes the evolution of these emissions from 2000 to 2050 in the context of policy goals. The survey reveals that: (1) The major historical factor contributing to the decrease in industrial CO2 emissions has been the reduction in energy intensities. However, that decrease has been more than compensated for by increases in industrial activity. (2) An ensemble of projections shows that China's industrial emissions will likely peak in 2030, in alignment with China's commitment to the Paris Agreement. The timing of the peak varies across industrial sub-sectors, with ferrous metals and non-metallic products sectors peaking first, and the electricity sector later. (3) The assumptions underlying optimistic scenarios broadly match the drivers of recent decreases in historical emissions (energy intensity, industrial structure and energy mix). Furthermore, these factors feature prominently in China's policy portfolio to both develop and decarbonize the Chinese industrial sector. The industrial carbon intensity targets of 2020 and 2025 are close to the median predictions in the medium scenarios from studies. The Authors
英文关键词	Emission projections; Historical drivers; Industrial CO2 emissions; Policy goals
scopus关键词	Carbon dioxide; Surveys; CO2 emissions; Electricity sector; Emission projections; Historical emissions; Industrial activities; Industrial structures; Non-metallic products; Policy goals; Industrial emissions
来源期刊	Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/176280
作者单位	Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, Einsteinweg 2, Leiden, 2333 CC, Netherlands; School of Finance, Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, Tianjin, 300222, China; School of Construction Management and Real Estate, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400045, China; Leiden University College the Hague, The Hague, 2595 DG, Netherlands; Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research TNO, Anna van Buerenplein 1, The Hague, 2595 DA, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang J.,Rodrigues J.F.D.,Hu M.,等. The evolution of Chinese industrial CO2 emissions 2000–2050: A review and meta-analysis of historical drivers; projections and policy goals[J],2019,116.
APA	Wang J.,Rodrigues J.F.D.,Hu M.,Behrens P.,&Tukker A..(2019).The evolution of Chinese industrial CO2 emissions 2000–2050: A review and meta-analysis of historical drivers; projections and policy goals.Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,116.
MLA	Wang J.,et al."The evolution of Chinese industrial CO2 emissions 2000–2050: A review and meta-analysis of historical drivers; projections and policy goals".Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 116(2019).