气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Coupled LMDI and system dynamics model for estimating urban CO2 emission mitigation potential in Shanghai; China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118034
	Coupled LMDI and system dynamics model for estimating urban CO2 emission mitigation potential in Shanghai; China
	Gu S.; Fu B.; Thriveni T.; Fujita T.; Ahn J.W.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	9596526
卷号	240
英文摘要	In this study, both the extended logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) model and the system dynamics (SD) model were used to explore determinants of CO2 emission change during 1995–2016 and to predict the emission mitigation potential from 2016 to 2030 in Shanghai (China). Some novel factors (e.g., private car ownership, urban travel structure, and income level) were chosen and added to the LMDI model. The combination of the LMDI and SD models might provide a new pathway for policymakers to cope with such sophisticated issues. The results showed that: (1) GDP per capita is the main positive driving force for CO2 emission growth, followed by population, average income level per capita, and car ownership per capita. Energy intensity is the main factor for carbon mitigation, followed by economic structure, residential energy intensity, and emission coefficient. (2) The additive effect of different scenarios is essential for emission control. (3) CO2 emissions and emission per capita would peak by 2025 at the level of 218.20 Mt and 8.83 t per capita, respectively. Tertiary industry and public travel model promotion, power generation structure, and primary energy structure optimization would facilitate emission mitigation in Shanghai, which could also be a reference for other similar mega-cities in developing countries. Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	LMDI; Mitigation strategy; Scenario analysis; SD model; Shanghai; Urban carbon emissions
scopus关键词	Developing countries; Economics; Emission control; Population statistics; Structural optimization; System theory; Carbon emissions; LMDI; Mitigation strategy; Scenario analysis; Sd models; Shanghai; Carbon dioxide
来源期刊	Journal of Cleaner Production
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/176272
作者单位	Center for Carbon Mineralization, Mineral Resources Division, Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources, 124 Gwahak-ro, Gajeong-dong, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon, 34132, South Korea; Shanghai Environment Sanitation Engineering Design and Research Institute Co. Ltd., Shanghai, 200232, China; Department of Systems Innovation, Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo113-8656, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gu S.,Fu B.,Thriveni T.,et al. Coupled LMDI and system dynamics model for estimating urban CO2 emission mitigation potential in Shanghai; China[J],2019,240.
APA	Gu S.,Fu B.,Thriveni T.,Fujita T.,&Ahn J.W..(2019).Coupled LMDI and system dynamics model for estimating urban CO2 emission mitigation potential in Shanghai; China.Journal of Cleaner Production,240.
MLA	Gu S.,et al."Coupled LMDI and system dynamics model for estimating urban CO2 emission mitigation potential in Shanghai; China".Journal of Cleaner Production 240(2019).