气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal

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DOI	10.1038/s41586-019-1541-4
	A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal
	Rogelj J.; Huppmann D.; Krey V.; Riahi K.; Clarke L.; Gidden M.; Nicholls Z.; Meinshausen M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	280836
起始页码	357
结束页码	363
卷号	573 期号:7774
英文摘要	To understand how global warming can be kept well below 2 degrees Celsius and even 1.5 degrees Celsius, climate policy uses scenarios that describe how society could reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. However, current scenarios have a key weakness: they typically focus on reaching specific climate goals in 2100. This choice may encourage risky pathways that delay action, reach higher-than-acceptable mid-century warming, and rely on net removal of carbon dioxide thereafter to undo their initial shortfall in reductions of emissions. Here we draw on insights from physical science to propose a scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a specific maximum level with either temperature stabilization or reversal thereafter. The ambition of climate action until carbon neutrality determines peak warming, and can be followed by a variety of long-term states with different sustainability implications. The approach proposed here closely mirrors the intentions of the United Nations Paris Agreement, and makes questions of intergenerational equity into explicit design choices., The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
scopus关键词	carbon dioxide; carbon dioxide; emission control; environmental policy; global warming; greenhouse gas; physical science; sustainability; United Nations; Article; climate change; controlled study; environmental impact; environmental sustainability; environmental temperature; greenhouse effect; priority journal; temperature sensitivity; climate change; environmental protection; motivation; procedures; temperature; United Nations; Climate Change; Conservation of Natural Resources; Goals; Temperature; United Nations
来源期刊	Nature
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/176175
作者单位	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria; Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Industrial Ecology Programme and Energy Transitions Initiative, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway; Graz University of Technology, Graz, Austria; Center for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States; Australian-German Climate and Energy College, School of Earth Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; PRIMAP Group, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rogelj J.,Huppmann D.,Krey V.,et al. A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal[J],2019,573(7774).
APA	Rogelj J..,Huppmann D..,Krey V..,Riahi K..,Clarke L..,...&Meinshausen M..(2019).A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal.Nature,573(7774).
MLA	Rogelj J.,et al."A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal".Nature 573.7774(2019).