气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Costs or benefits? Assessing the economy-wide effects of the electricity sector's low carbon transition – The role of capital costs; divergent risk perceptions and premiums

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DOI	10.1016/j.esr.2019.100373
	Costs or benefits? Assessing the economy-wide effects of the electricity sector's low carbon transition – The role of capital costs; divergent risk perceptions and premiums
	Bachner G.; Mayer J.; Steininger K.W.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	2211467X
卷号	26
英文摘要	To mitigate climate change, societies strive to transform the energy sector towards greenhouse gas emission neutrality, a move which assessment studies often indicate incurs large macroeconomic costs. In this context the weighted average costs of capital (WACC) are especially important, as renewables are highly capital intensive. In particular, investors' perceptions and expectations of risks are fundamental determinants of WACC and thus strongly influence the macroeconomic outcome of transition analyses. For the case of Europe's electricity sector transition, we analyze this sensitivity by choosing different WACC settings, driven also by different policy settings redirecting expectations. First, we find that when differentiating WACC across regions and technologies more accurately than usually done in the literature, immediate and substantial macroeconomic benefits from the transition emerge. We thereby reveal a systematic overestimation of low-carbon transition costs in the literature. Second, we find that when pricing-in increasing trust in renewables, these benefits get significantly larger, outweighing possible negative macroeconomic effects from the risk of stranding of fossil-based assets. We also demonstrate that in developed regions such as Europe, de-risking renewables is an effective lever for reaching climate targets, which indicates the relevance of green macroprudential regulation. The Author(s)
英文关键词	Capital costs; Climate change mitigation; Electricity; Europe; Risk
scopus关键词	Carbon; Costs; Economics; Electric industry; Electricity; Greenhouse gases; Risk assessment; Risk perception; Risks; Capital costs; Climate change mitigation; Developed regions; Economy wide effects; Electricity sector; Europe; Low-carbon transitions; Transition analysis; Climate change
来源期刊	Energy Strategy Reviews
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/176159
作者单位	Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz AT, Austria; Department of Economics, University of Graz AT, Austria
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bachner G.,Mayer J.,Steininger K.W.. Costs or benefits? Assessing the economy-wide effects of the electricity sector's low carbon transition – The role of capital costs; divergent risk perceptions and premiums[J],2019,26.
APA	Bachner G.,Mayer J.,&Steininger K.W..(2019).Costs or benefits? Assessing the economy-wide effects of the electricity sector's low carbon transition – The role of capital costs; divergent risk perceptions and premiums.Energy Strategy Reviews,26.
MLA	Bachner G.,et al."Costs or benefits? Assessing the economy-wide effects of the electricity sector's low carbon transition – The role of capital costs; divergent risk perceptions and premiums".Energy Strategy Reviews 26(2019).