气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Enhanced warming constrained by past trends in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature gradient

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-020-00933-3
	Enhanced warming constrained by past trends in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature gradient
	Watanabe M.; Dufresne J.-L.; Kosaka Y.; Mauritsen T.; Tatebe H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1758-678X
英文摘要	The equatorial Pacific zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, known to be a pacemaker of global warming, has strengthened since the mid-twentieth century. However, the cause is controversial because a majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models suggest weakening of the zonal SST gradient from the past to the future. Reconciling this discrepancy is important for the climate change attribution and climate sensitivity assessment. Here we use the CMIP5 ensemble and large ensemble simulations by four climate models to show that the intensifying SST gradient observed during 1951–2010 could arise from internal climate variability. Models and members that simulate historical strengthening of the SST gradient commonly exhibit reversed future trends. Using these models as a constraint, the rate of global-mean temperature rise is amplified by 9–30%, with higher values occurring in low-emission scenarios, because internal variability has a greater impact when the externally forced response is smaller. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171699
作者单位	Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Chiba, Japan; Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/IPSL, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, École Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, École Polytechnique, Paris, France; The Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Watanabe M.,Dufresne J.-L.,Kosaka Y.,et al. Enhanced warming constrained by past trends in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature gradient[J],2020.
APA	Watanabe M.,Dufresne J.-L.,Kosaka Y.,Mauritsen T.,&Tatebe H..(2020).Enhanced warming constrained by past trends in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature gradient.Nature Climate Change.
MLA	Watanabe M.,et al."Enhanced warming constrained by past trends in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature gradient".Nature Climate Change (2020).