气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-020-0731-2
	Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects
	Deser C.; Lehner F.; Rodgers K.B.; Ault T.; Delworth T.L.; DiNezio P.N.; Fiore A.; Frankignoul C.; Fyfe J.C.; Horton D.E.; Kay J.E.; Knutti R.; Lovenduski N.S.; Marotzke J.; McKinnon K.A.; Minobe S.; Randerson J.; Screen J.A.; Simpson I.R.; Ting M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1758-678X
起始页码	277
结束页码	286
卷号	10 期号:4
英文摘要	Internal variability in the climate system confounds assessment of human-induced climate change and imposes irreducible limits on the accuracy of climate change projections, especially at regional and decadal scales. A new collection of initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) generated with seven Earth system models under historical and future radiative forcing scenarios provides new insights into uncertainties due to internal variability versus model differences. These data enhance the assessment of climate change risks, including extreme events, and offer a powerful testbed for new methodologies aimed at separating forced signals from internal variability in the observational record. Opportunities and challenges confronting the design and dissemination of future LEs, including increased spatial resolution and model complexity alongside emerging Earth system applications, are discussed. © 2020, Springer Nature Limited.
英文关键词	accuracy assessment; climate prediction; complexity; design; future prospect; human activity; radiative forcing; scenario analysis; spatial resolution; uncertainty analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171693
作者单位	National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles, Washington, DC, United States; Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, South Korea; Pusan National University, Pusan, South Korea; Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, Princeton, NJ, United States; Institute for Geophysics, University of Texas, Austin, Austin, TX, United States; Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Sorbonne University, Paris, France; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, United States; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colora...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Deser C.,Lehner F.,Rodgers K.B.,et al. Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects[J],2020,10(4).
APA	Deser C..,Lehner F..,Rodgers K.B..,Ault T..,Delworth T.L..,...&Ting M..(2020).Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects.Nature Climate Change,10(4).
MLA	Deser C.,et al."Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects".Nature Climate Change 10.4(2020).