气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The costs of achieving climate targets and the sources of uncertainty

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-020-0732-1
	The costs of achieving climate targets and the sources of uncertainty
	van Vuuren D.P.; van der Wijst K.-I.; Marsman S.; van den Berg M.; Hof A.F.; Jones C.D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1758-678X
起始页码	329
结束页码	334
卷号	10 期号:4
英文摘要	Effective climate policy requires information from various scientific disciplines. Here, we construct a metamodel from climate and integrated assessment models that assesses the emissions budget, costs and uncertainty sources of achieving temperature targets. By calibrating to the model-based literature range, the metamodel goes beyond the parametric uncertainty of individual models. The resulting median estimates for the cumulative abatement costs (at 5% discount rate) for 2 °C and 1.5 °C targets are around US$15 trillion and US$30 trillion, but estimates vary over a wide range (US$10–100 trillion for the 1.5 °C target). The sources determining this uncertainty depend on the climate target stringency. Climate system uncertainty dominates at high warming levels, but uncertainty in emissions reductions costs dominates for the Paris Agreement targets. In fact, costs differences between different socio-economic development paths can be larger than the difference in median estimates for the 2 °C and 1.5 °C targets. This simple metamodel helps to explore implications of scenario uncertainty and identify research priorities. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
英文关键词	abatement cost; assessment method; cost analysis; emission control; environmental economics; environmental policy; uncertainty analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171687
作者单位	PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Hague, Netherlands; Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Mathematical Institute, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	van Vuuren D.P.,van der Wijst K.-I.,Marsman S.,et al. The costs of achieving climate targets and the sources of uncertainty[J],2020,10(4).
APA	van Vuuren D.P.,van der Wijst K.-I.,Marsman S.,van den Berg M.,Hof A.F.,&Jones C.D..(2020).The costs of achieving climate targets and the sources of uncertainty.Nature Climate Change,10(4).
MLA	van Vuuren D.P.,et al."The costs of achieving climate targets and the sources of uncertainty".Nature Climate Change 10.4(2020).