气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Drought less predictable under declining future snowpack

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-020-0754-8
	Drought less predictable under declining future snowpack
	Livneh B.; Badger A.M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1758-678X
起始页码	452
结束页码	458
卷号	10 期号:5
英文摘要	Mountain snowpack serves as an immense natural water reservoir, and knowledge of snow conditions helps predict seasonal water availability and offers critical early warning of hydrologic drought. This paradigm faces an impending challenge given consensus that a smaller fraction of future precipitation will fall as snow. Here, we apply downscaled hydrologic simulations from 28 climate model projections to show that by mid-century (2036–2065), 69% of historically snowmelt-dominated areas of the western United States see a decline in the ability of snow to predict seasonal drought, increasing to 83% by late century (2070–2099). Reduced predictability arises when peak snowpack approaches zero or because of decreased warm-season runoff efficiency. Changes in drought prediction skill show significant (P < 0.01) elevation dependence, with lower-elevation coastal areas most impacted by warming. Ancillary predictive information can only partially mitigate snow-based predictability losses to 65% of areas, underscoring the importance of declining future snowpack. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
英文关键词	climate modeling; drought; precipitation (climatology); runoff; snowpack; water availability; United States
语种	英语
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171680
作者单位	Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States; Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD, United States; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Livneh B.,Badger A.M.. Drought less predictable under declining future snowpack[J],2020,10(5).
APA	Livneh B.,&Badger A.M..(2020).Drought less predictable under declining future snowpack.Nature Climate Change,10(5).
MLA	Livneh B.,et al."Drought less predictable under declining future snowpack".Nature Climate Change 10.5(2020).