气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Extremes become routine in an emerging new Arctic

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-020-0892-z
	Extremes become routine in an emerging new Arctic
	Landrum L.; Holland M.M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1758-678X
起始页码	1108
结束页码	1115
卷号	10 期号:12
英文摘要	The Arctic is rapidly warming and experiencing tremendous changes in sea ice, ocean and terrestrial regions. Lack of long-term scientific observations makes it difficult to assess whether Arctic changes statistically represent a ‘new Arctic’ climate. Here we use five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 class Earth system model large ensembles to show how the Arctic is transitioning from a dominantly frozen state and to quantify the nature and timing of an emerging new Arctic climate in sea ice, air temperatures and precipitation phase (rain versus snow). Our results suggest that Arctic climate has already emerged in sea ice. Air temperatures will emerge under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario in the early- to mid-twenty-first century, followed by precipitation-phase changes. Despite differences in mean state and forced response, these models show striking similarities in their anthropogenically forced emergence from internal variability in Arctic sea ice, surface temperatures and precipitation-phase changes. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
英文关键词	air temperature; anthropogenic effect; climate modeling; CMIP; extreme event; global warming; long-term change; sea ice; twenty first century; Arctic
语种	英语
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171634
作者单位	National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Landrum L.,Holland M.M.. Extremes become routine in an emerging new Arctic[J],2020,10(12).
APA	Landrum L.,&Holland M.M..(2020).Extremes become routine in an emerging new Arctic.Nature Climate Change,10(12).
MLA	Landrum L.,et al."Extremes become routine in an emerging new Arctic".Nature Climate Change 10.12(2020).