气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Atmospheric dynamic constraints on Tibetan Plateau freshwater under Paris climate targets

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-020-00974-8
	Atmospheric dynamic constraints on Tibetan Plateau freshwater under Paris climate targets
	Wang T.; Zhao Y.; Xu C.; Ciais P.; Liu D.; Yang H.; Piao S.; Yao T.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1758-678X
英文摘要	Rivers originating in the Tibetan Plateau provide freshwater to downstream populations, yet runoff projections from warming are unclear due to precipitation uncertainties. Here, we use a historical atmospheric circulation–precipitation relationship to constrain future modelled wet-season precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau. Our constraint reduces precipitation increases to half of those from the unconstrained ensemble and reduces spread by around a factor of three. This constrained precipitation is used with estimated glacier melt contributions to constrain future runoff for seven rivers. We estimate runoff increases of 1.0–7.2% at the end of the twenty-first century for global mean warming of 1.5–4 °C above pre-industrial levels. Because population projections diverge across basins, this runoff increase will reduce the population fraction living under water scarcity conditions in the Yangtze and Yellow basins but not in the Indus and Ganges basins, necessitating improved water security through climate change adaptation policies in these regions at higher risk. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171594
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China; Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang T.,Zhao Y.,Xu C.,et al. Atmospheric dynamic constraints on Tibetan Plateau freshwater under Paris climate targets[J],2021.
APA	Wang T..,Zhao Y..,Xu C..,Ciais P..,Liu D..,...&Yao T..(2021).Atmospheric dynamic constraints on Tibetan Plateau freshwater under Paris climate targets.Nature Climate Change.
MLA	Wang T.,et al."Atmospheric dynamic constraints on Tibetan Plateau freshwater under Paris climate targets".Nature Climate Change (2021).