气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Stringent mitigation substantially reduces risk of unprecedented near-term warming rates

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-020-00957-9
	Stringent mitigation substantially reduces risk of unprecedented near-term warming rates
	McKenna C.M.; Maycock A.C.; Forster P.M.; Smith C.J.; Tokarska K.B.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1758-678X
起始页码	126
结束页码	131
卷号	11 期号:2
英文摘要	Following the Paris Agreement, many countries are enacting targets to achieve net-zero GHG emissions. Stringent mitigation will have clear societal benefits in the second half of this century by limiting peak warming and stabilizing climate. However, the near-term benefits of mitigation are generally thought to be less clear because forced surface temperature trends can be masked by internal variability. Here we use observationally constrained projections from the latest comprehensive climate models and a simple climate model emulator to show that pursuing stringent mitigation consistent with holding long-term warming below 1.5 °C reduces the risk of unprecedented warming rates in the next 20 years by a factor of 13 compared with a no mitigation scenario, even after accounting for internal variability. Therefore, in addition to long-term benefits, stringent mitigation offers substantial near-term benefits by offering societies and ecosystems a greater chance to adapt to and avoid the worst climate change impacts. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2021.
语种	英语
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171584
作者单位	School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	McKenna C.M.,Maycock A.C.,Forster P.M.,et al. Stringent mitigation substantially reduces risk of unprecedented near-term warming rates[J],2021,11(2).
APA	McKenna C.M.,Maycock A.C.,Forster P.M.,Smith C.J.,&Tokarska K.B..(2021).Stringent mitigation substantially reduces risk of unprecedented near-term warming rates.Nature Climate Change,11(2).
MLA	McKenna C.M.,et al."Stringent mitigation substantially reduces risk of unprecedented near-term warming rates".Nature Climate Change 11.2(2021).