气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x
	Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect
	Zhou C.; Zelinka M.D.; Dessler A.E.; Wang M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1758-678X
起始页码	132
结束页码	136
卷号	11 期号:2
英文摘要	Our planet’s energy balance is sensitive to spatial inhomogeneities in sea surface temperature and sea ice changes, but this is typically ignored in climate projections. Here, we show the energy budget during recent decades can be closed by combining changes in effective radiative forcing, linear radiative damping and this pattern effect. The pattern effect is of comparable magnitude but opposite sign to Earth’s net energy imbalance in the 2000s, indicating its importance when predicting the future climate on the basis of observations. After the pattern effect is accounted for, the best-estimate value of committed global warming at present-day forcing rises from 1.31 K (0.99–2.33 K, 5th–95th percentile) to over 2 K, and committed warming in 2100 with constant long-lived forcing increases from 1.32 K (0.94–2.03 K) to over 1.5 K, although the magnitude is sensitive to sea surface temperature dataset. Further constraints on the pattern effect are needed to reduce climate projection uncertainty. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2021.
语种	英语
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171583
作者单位	School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; Joint International Research Laboratory of Atmospheric and Earth System Sciences & Institute for Climate and Global Change Research, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; Cloud Processes Research and Modeling Group, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhou C.,Zelinka M.D.,Dessler A.E.,et al. Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect[J],2021,11(2).
APA	Zhou C.,Zelinka M.D.,Dessler A.E.,&Wang M..(2021).Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect.Nature Climate Change,11(2).
MLA	Zhou C.,et al."Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect".Nature Climate Change 11.2(2021).