气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): U.K. climate projections: Summer daytime and nighttime urban heat island changes in England's major cities

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0961.1
	U.K. climate projections: Summer daytime and nighttime urban heat island changes in England's major cities
	Eunice Lo Y.T.; Mitchell D.M.; Bohnenstengel S.I.; Collins M.; Hawkins E.; Hegerl G.C.; Joshi M.; Stott P.A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	9015
结束页码	9030
卷号	33 期号:20
英文摘要	In the United Kingdom, where 90% of residents are projected to live in urban areas by 2050, projecting changes in urban heat islands (UHIs) is essential to municipal adaptation. Increased summer temperatures are linked to increased mortality. Using the new regional U.K. Climate Projections, UKCP18-regional, we estimate the 1981-2079 trends in summer urban and rural near-surface air temperatures and in UHI intensities during day and at night in the 10 most populous built-up areas in England. Summer temperatures increase by 0.458-0.818C per decade under RCP8.5, depending on the time of day and location. Nighttime temperatures increase more in urban than rural areas, enhancing the nighttime UHI by 0.018-0.058C per decade in all cities. When these upward UHI signals emerge from 2008-18 variability, positive summer nighttime UHI intensities of up to 1.88C are projected in most cities. However, we can prevent most of these upward nighttime UHI signals from emerging by stabilizing climate to the Paris Agreement target of 28C above preindustrial levels. In contrast, daytime UHI intensities decrease in nine cities, at rates between 20.0048 and 20.058C per decade, indicating a trend toward a reduced daytime UHI effect. These changes reflect different feedbacks over urban and rural areas and are specific to UKCP18-regional. Future research is important to better understand the drivers of these UHI intensity changes. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
英文关键词	Rural areas; Climate projection; Intensity change; Near surface air temperature; Nighttime temperatures; Pre-industrial levels; Summer temperature; Urban and rural areas; Urban heat island; Atmospheric temperature; air temperature; climate change; climate modeling; climate prediction; heat island; land-atmosphere interaction; summer; trend analysis; England; United Kingdom
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171530
作者单位	School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; MetOffice@Reading, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Eunice Lo Y.T.,Mitchell D.M.,Bohnenstengel S.I.,et al. U.K. climate projections: Summer daytime and nighttime urban heat island changes in England's major cities[J],2020,33(20).
APA	Eunice Lo Y.T..,Mitchell D.M..,Bohnenstengel S.I..,Collins M..,Hawkins E..,...&Stott P.A..(2020).U.K. climate projections: Summer daytime and nighttime urban heat island changes in England's major cities.Journal of Climate,33(20).
MLA	Eunice Lo Y.T.,et al."U.K. climate projections: Summer daytime and nighttime urban heat island changes in England's major cities".Journal of Climate 33.20(2020).