气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Western north pacific tropical cyclones in the met office global seasonal forecast system: Performance and ENSO teleconnections

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0255.1
	Western north pacific tropical cyclones in the met office global seasonal forecast system: Performance and ENSO teleconnections
	Feng X.; Klingaman N.P.; Hodges K.I.; Guo Y.-P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	10489
结束页码	10504
卷号	33 期号:24
英文摘要	The performance of the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System (GloSea5-GC2) for tropical cyclone (TC) frequency for the western North Pacific (WNP) in July-October is evaluated, using 23 years of ensemble forecasts (1993-2015). Compared to observations, GloSea5 overpredicts the climatological TC frequency in the eastern WNP and underpredicts it in the western and northern WNP. These biases are associated with an El Niño-type bias in TC-related environmental conditions (e.g., low-level convergence and steering flow), which encourages too many TCs to form throughout the tropical Pacific and slows TC propagation speed. For interannual TC frequency variability, GloSea5 overestimates the observed negative TC-ENSO teleconnection in the western and northern WNP, associated with an eastward shift in the ENSO teleconnection to environmental conditions. Consequently, GloSea5 fails to predict interannual TC variability in the northeast WNP (south of Japan); performance is higher in the southwest WNP (e.g., the South China Sea) where the sign of the TC-ENSO teleconnection is correct. This study suggests the need to reduce biases in environmental conditions and associated ENSO teleconnections in GloSea5 to improve the TC prediction performance in the NWP. © 2020 American Meteorological Society
英文关键词	Hurricanes; Storms; Tropics; Ensemble forecasts; Environmental conditions; Frequency variability; Prediction performance; Propagation speed; Seasonal forecasts; Tropical cyclone; Western North Pacific; Forecasting; annual variation; atmospheric general circulation model; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; ensemble forecasting; environmental conditions; seasonal variation; teleconnection; tropical cyclone; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (North)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171517
作者单位	National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather, Ministry of Education, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Feng X.,Klingaman N.P.,Hodges K.I.,et al. Western north pacific tropical cyclones in the met office global seasonal forecast system: Performance and ENSO teleconnections[J],2020,33(24).
APA	Feng X.,Klingaman N.P.,Hodges K.I.,&Guo Y.-P..(2020).Western north pacific tropical cyclones in the met office global seasonal forecast system: Performance and ENSO teleconnections.Journal of Climate,33(24).
MLA	Feng X.,et al."Western north pacific tropical cyclones in the met office global seasonal forecast system: Performance and ENSO teleconnections".Journal of Climate 33.24(2020).