气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Southeastern U.S. Tornado Outbreak Likelihood Using Daily Climate Indices

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0684.1
	Southeastern U.S. Tornado Outbreak Likelihood Using Daily Climate Indices
	Brown M.C.; Nowotarski C.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	3229
结束页码	3252
卷号	33 期号:8
英文摘要	This study investigates relationships between climate-scale patterns and seasonal tornado outbreaks across the southeastern United States. Time series of several daily climate indices—including Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern, east/west Pacific Oscillation (EPO/WPO), and both raw and detrended Gulf of Mexico SST anomalies (SSTA/SSTAD)—are collected in advance of Southeast severe convective days and grouped using self-organizing maps (SOMs). Spatiotemporal distributions of storm reports within nodes are compared to seasonal climatology, and the evolution of the regional environment for nodes associated with outbreaks is analyzed to provide physical justification for such associations. This study confirms findings from several tornado-related climate studies in the literature, while also identifying a number of new patterns associated with Southeast tornado outbreaks. Both the AO and NAO are relevant across all seasons, especially on lead time scales of 1–2 months, while SSTA/SSTADs are relevant on smaller time scales. The physical connection between these patterns and the regional storm environment is largely related to alterations of upper-level circulation and jet stream patterns, which in turn influence deep- and low-level shear, inland transport of moisture and instability, and other regional characteristics pertinent to tornado outbreaks. These results suggest that climate-scale variability can modulate and potentially be used to predict regional storm environments and their likelihood to produce tornado outbreaks across the Southeast. Ó 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Conformal mapping; Self organizing maps; Storms; American meteorological societies; Arctic oscillations; North Atlantic oscillations; Physical connections; Regional characteristics; Regional environments; Self organizing maps(soms); Spatiotemporal distributions; Tornadoes; Arctic Oscillation; atmospheric dynamics; climate modeling; North Atlantic Oscillation; sea surface temperature; seasonal variation; spatiotemporal analysis; tornado; United States
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171513
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Brown M.C.,Nowotarski C.J.. Southeastern U.S. Tornado Outbreak Likelihood Using Daily Climate Indices[J],2020,33(8).
APA	Brown M.C.,&Nowotarski C.J..(2020).Southeastern U.S. Tornado Outbreak Likelihood Using Daily Climate Indices.Journal of Climate,33(8).
MLA	Brown M.C.,et al."Southeastern U.S. Tornado Outbreak Likelihood Using Daily Climate Indices".Journal of Climate 33.8(2020).