气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Using Co-behavior analysis to interrogate the performance of CMIP5 GCMs over Southern Africa

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0472.1
	Using Co-behavior analysis to interrogate the performance of CMIP5 GCMs over Southern Africa
	Quagraine K.A.; Hewitson B.; Jack C.; Wolski P.; Pinto I.; Lennard C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	2891
结束页码	2905
卷号	33 期号:7
英文摘要	As established in earlier research, analysis of the combined roles (co-behavior) of multiple climate processes provides useful insights into the drivers of regional climate variability, especially for regions with no singular large-scale circulation control. Here, we extend the previous study in order to examine the performance of eight models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) in representing co-behavior influence on surface expressions over southern Africa. We find that although models broadly simulate observed precipitation responses over southern Africa, they fail to produce statistically strong response signals for an important drought pattern (El Niño co-behaving with positive Antarctic Oscillation during summer) for the region. We also demonstrate that the models show statistically strong temperature response signals to co-behavior that agree well with observed responses over the region. The multimodel ensemble mean although consistent with observations shows a larger spread. By elucidating the performance of models in representing observed co-behavior of climate processes, we are able to evaluate models while establishing important information for understanding of climate variability. Ó 2020 American Meteorological Society
英文关键词	Behavioral research; Climatology; American meteorological societies; Antarctic oscillation; Climate variability; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Large-scale circulation; Multi-model ensemble; Surface expression; Temperature response; Climate models; air temperature; atmospheric general circulation model; climate variation; CMIP; drought; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; Southern Africa
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171511
作者单位	Climate System Analysis Group, Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Quagraine K.A.,Hewitson B.,Jack C.,et al. Using Co-behavior analysis to interrogate the performance of CMIP5 GCMs over Southern Africa[J],2020,33(7).
APA	Quagraine K.A.,Hewitson B.,Jack C.,Wolski P.,Pinto I.,&Lennard C..(2020).Using Co-behavior analysis to interrogate the performance of CMIP5 GCMs over Southern Africa.Journal of Climate,33(7).
MLA	Quagraine K.A.,et al."Using Co-behavior analysis to interrogate the performance of CMIP5 GCMs over Southern Africa".Journal of Climate 33.7(2020).